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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1320-1359 | 100% | −1 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580-599 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-639 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 640-679 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 680-719 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 720-759 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 760-799 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 800-839 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 840-879 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 880-919 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 920-959 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 960-999 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1000-1039 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1040-1079 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1080-1119 | 0% | +1 pts | +2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1120-1159 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1160-1199 | 0% | +2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1200-1239 | 0% | 0 pts | +1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1240-1279 | 0% | 0 pts | +1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1280-1319 | 0% | −2 pts | +3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1360-1399 | 0% | +1 pts | +2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1400+ | 0% | −4 pts | +10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 206d |  PredictionYogi | 1400+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,162 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 206d | havetodoc | 1320-1359 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,104 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 206d | 0XE04A5813b7043564654A776c9189F3AE527d094f | 1280-1319 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,919 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 206d |  AlmostRich | 1280-1319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,748 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 206d | 0XE04A5813b7043564654A776c9189F3AE527d094f | 1280-1319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,655 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 206d | kobie3 | 1280-1319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,621 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 206d |  Meow12 | 1280-1319 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,520 | +$80 +5.3% | 21 |
| 206d | AlmostRich | 1280-1319 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,690 | +$60 +3.6% | 21 |
| 206d | shcc | 1240-1279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,210 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 206d | niuniuhgir | 1240-1279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,249 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 207d | miyugyiftu66 | 1240-1279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,255 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 207d | kobie3 | 1240-1279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,869 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 207d | fdsfsdfsdfd5 | 1240-1279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,454 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 207d |  Alphax2 fills | 1200-1239 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 208d |  Juicyworld | 1360-1399 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$90 +9.0% | 21 |
| 208d | besmart20252 fills | 1240-1279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,199 | +$51 +0.7% | 20 |
| 208d | 0x05262 fills | 1200-1239 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,155 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 209d | Alphax2 fills | 1200-1239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,616 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d | Alphax2 fills | 1160-1199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,362 | +$21 +0.1% | 20 |
| 210d | 0XE04A5813b7043564654A776c9189F3AE527d094f | 1160-1199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 213d |  Kuukskes | 1080-1119 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,880 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 214d | pairfp49 | 1280-1319 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,475 | −$91 −6.2% | — |
| 214d | empty-endorse | 1280-1319 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,154 | −$71 −6.2% | — |
| 214d | spiceev842 fills | 1280-1319 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,249 | −$144 −6.4% | — |
| 214d | doctorProfit | 1280-1319 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,122 | −$69 −6.2% | — |
| 214d | ruleBattle | 1280-1319 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,042 | −$64 −6.2% | — |
| 214d | license-twelve-glide | 1280-1319 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,054 | −$69 −6.5% | — |
| 214d | Always.Salad.Excess | 1280-1319 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,520 | −$99 −6.5% | — |
| 214d | lock474 | 1280-1319 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,264 | −$82 −6.5% | — |
| 214d | baconExpire | 1280-1319 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,113 | −$72 −6.5% | — |
| 214d | eternal-glare | 1280-1319 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,438 | −$93 −6.5% | — |
| 214d | Always.Salad.Excess | 1280-1319 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,519 | +$100 +6.6% | 20 |
| 214d | shaft-episode | 1280-1319 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,307 | −$86 −6.6% | — |
| 214d | leisure-camp-kick2 fills | 1280-1319 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,671 | −$159 −6.0% | — |
| 214d | spiceev84 | 1280-1319 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,176 | +$75 +6.4% | 20 |
| 214d | order-mushroom-talent | 1280-1319 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,122 | −$74 −6.6% | — |
| 214d | stageou37 | 1280-1319 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,158 | −$77 −6.6% | — |
| 214d | suffer.tattoo.target | 1280-1319 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,261 | −$83 −6.6% | — |
| 214d | hander91 | 1280-1319 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,126 | −$74 −6.6% | — |
| 215d | stoolSpot | 1280-1319 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,334 | −$88 −6.6% | — |
| 215d | explain91 | 1280-1319 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,640 | −$108 −6.6% | — |
| 215d | explain91 | 1280-1319 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,636 | +$112 +6.8% | 20 |
| 215d | playMinor | 1280-1319 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,009 | −$71 −7.1% | — |
| 215d | assist-sketch | 1280-1319 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,183 | −$65 −5.5% | — |
| 215d | findCertain | 1320-1359 | SellNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,137 | +$1,137 +100% | — |
| 215d | pairfp49 | 1320-1359 | SellNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,423 | +$1,423 +100% | — |
| 215d | regularDrop | 1320-1359 | SellNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,141 | +$1,141 +100% | — |
| 215d | rackpf27 | 1320-1359 | SellNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,083 | +$1,083 +100% | — |
| 215d | playMinor | 1320-1359 | SellNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,361 | +$1,361 +100% | — |
| 215d | addict-burger | 1320-1359 | SellNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,154 | +$1,154 +100% | — |
| 215d | novel62 | 1320-1359 | SellNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,320 | +$1,320 +100% | — |
| 215d | stagerb36 | 1320-1359 | SellNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,056 | +$1,056 +100% | — |
| 215d | regionsd11 | 1320-1359 | SellNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,063 | +$1,063 +100% | — |
| 215d | between1557 | 1320-1359 | SellNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,146 | +$1,146 +100% | — |
| 215d | buyerEmploy | 1320-1359 | SellNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,485 | +$1,485 +100% | — |
| 215d | valve790 | 1320-1359 | SellNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,288 | +$1,288 +100% | — |
| 215d | boatEarly | 1320-1359 | SellNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,300 | +$1,300 +100% | — |
| 215d | tablebc92 | 1320-1359 | SellNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,187 | +$1,187 +100% | — |
| 215d | beachuz50 | 1320-1359 | SellNo91¢ → 0¢ | $1,171 | +$1,171 +100% | — |
| 215d | leisure-camp-kick2 fills | 1320-1359 | SellNo91¢ → 0¢ | $2,233 | +$2,233 +100% | — |
Lavincey165 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 1320-1359 means the market gives it about 100%.