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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 225–249 | 100% | +80 pts | +87 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <100 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100–124 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 125–149 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 150–174 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 175–199 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200–224 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 250–274 | 0% | −60 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 275–299 | 0% | −9 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300–324 | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 325–349 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350+ | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 532d |  BigBlackGorilla | 275–299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,110 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 532d | fluxzy | 275–299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,083 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 532d | Brokenstig1 | 225–249 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,655 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 532d | uppers | 225–249 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,768 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 532d |  HTFK | 225–249 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,995 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 532d |  Gustav42 fills | 225–249 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,133 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 532d | Gustav43 fills | 250–274 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,936 | +$155 +3.9% | 20 |
| 532d |  Prexpect2 fills | 225–249 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,379 | +$18 +0.3% | 20 |
| 532d | leiger | 225–249 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,987 | +$18 +0.3% | 20 |
| 532d | leiger | 275–299 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,988 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 532d | leiger | 325–349 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,389 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 532d |  Apostle | 225–249 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,437 | −$14 −1.0% | — |
| 532d | JSoon | 225–249 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,073 | +$21 +1.0% | 20 |
| 532d | Sirius109 | 225–249 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,567 | +$27 +1.0% | 20 |
| 532d | SirDragon | 250–274 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,721 | +$84 +3.1% | 20 |
| 532d | JSoon | 275–299 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,094 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 532d | uppers | 225–249 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,396 | +$81 +5.8% | 20 |
| 532d | TrojanSheep | 225–249 | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,140 | −$211 −18% | — |
| 533d |  Baadger | 225–249 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,568 | +$278 +11% | 20 |
| 533d |  ElonSpam3 fills | 225–249 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $3,262 | +$803 +25% | 20 |
| 533d | leiger | 275–299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,132 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 533d |  VasyaPupkin | 225–249 | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$308 +31% | 20 |
| 533d |  Cajetan | 300–324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,014 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 533d | Cajetan | 275–299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,011 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 533d |  lolboy4D | 225–249 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,127 | +$403 +36% | 29 |
| 533d |  414B | 225–249 | BuyYes32¢ → 100¢ | $1,181 | +$2,509 +212% | 31 |
| 533d | cipherpilot2 fills | 350+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,628 | +$9 +0.4% | 20 |
| 533d | worstoftheworld | 300–324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,600 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 533d | glarity | 300–324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,652 | +$35 +0.3% | 20 |
| 533d | edc-10 | 300–324 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,168 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 533d | JSoon | 275–299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,397 | +$132 +1.2% | 20 |
| 533d | BigBlackGorilla2 fills | 275–299 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,914 | +$78 +2.7% | 21 |
| 533d | werni | 350+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,402 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 533d | Brokenstig1 | 225–249 | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $1,472 | +$691 +47% | 30 |
| 533d |  Obtio2 fills | 275–299 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,307 | +$394 +9.2% | 22 |
| 533d |  Durachok734 | 300–324 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,040 | +$31 +0.8% | 20 |
| 533d | XZZD | 300–324 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,459 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 534d | LBZone | 350+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,249 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 534d | astromage | 325–349 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,303 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 534d | edc-10 | 350+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,143 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 534d |  Mortician2 fills | 200–224 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,578 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 534d | Gustav44 fills | 200–224 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $5,337 | +$339 +6.3% | 20 |
| 534d | cipherpilot | 200–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,949 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 534d | glarity3 fills | 200–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,090 | +$24 +0.2% | 20 |
| 534d |  PredictionYogi | 250–274 | BuyYes64¢ → 0¢ | $1,098 | −$1,098 −100% | 28 |
| 534d | m1earthsource | 200–224 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,109 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 534d |  Fregel443 | 350+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,100 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 534d | leiger | 350+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,490 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 534d | allin88 | 275–299 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,327 | +$152 +11% | 22 |
| 534d | SirDragon | 275–299 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,663 | +$157 +9.4% | 21 |
| 534d | 0x5d8df3c5e43d5e83b3c1c62be63b4c1bb9b9a4F3 | 200–224 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,877 | +$29 +1.0% | 20 |
| 534d | okyou | 300–324 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,225 | +$26 +2.1% | 20 |
| 534d |  Koklusha | 200–224 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,711 | +$31 +0.8% | 20 |
| 534d |  Grelochnik | 350+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,694 | +$32 +0.9% | 20 |
| 535d | edc-10 | 200–224 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,317 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 535d | eithfi | 175–199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,848 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 535d |  0xa8C4d45000b7976d897Ab79c21780E46faAA848 | 200–224 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,156 | +$27 +2.4% | 20 |
| 535d | edc-102 fills | 175–199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,885 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 535d | Mortician | 175–199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,620 | +$17 +0.2% | 20 |
| 535d | AreWeNotEntertained | 150–174 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,405 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
CavaSoTasty13,556 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between May 2, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and May 9, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 225–249 means the market gives it about 100%.