Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 800-839 | 100% | +76 pts | +94 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580-599 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-619 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 620-639 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 640-659 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 660-679 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 680-699 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 700-719 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 720-739 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 740-759 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 760-779 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 780-799 | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 840-879 | 0% | −75 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 880-919 | 0% | −1 pts | −27 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 920-959 | 0% | 0 pts | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 960-999 | 0% | — | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1000-1039 | 0% | — | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1040-1079 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1080-1119 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1120-1159 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1160-1199 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1200-1239 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1240-1279 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1280-1319 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1320-1359 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1360-1399 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1400-1439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1440-1479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1480-1519 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1520-1559 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1560-1599 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1600-1679 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1680-1759 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1760-1839 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1840-1919 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1920-1999 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 2000+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 145d | filaretou | 800-839 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,049 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 145d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 1120-1159 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,994 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 145d | BlackSugar. | 800-839 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,166 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 145d | Repulsive-Eyelids | 800-839 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,165 | −$9 −0.4% | — |
| 145d | Why-always-me | 800-839 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,770 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 145d | 0xc4ca…3df3 | 800-839 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,106 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 145d | jidong9808 | 800-839 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,491 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 145d | venezuelain | 800-839 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,179 | +$21 +0.4% | 20 |
| 145d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 840-879 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,370 | +$20 +0.6% | 20 |
| 145d |  Nikzzy | 800-839 | BuyNo91¢ → 0¢ | $5,628 | −$5,628 −100% | 23 |
| 145d | ausy | 800-839 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$341 +11% | 23 |
| 145d | dex52 | 880-919 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,912 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 145d |  Boss73 fills | 880-919 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,989 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 145d | Why-always-me | 800-839 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$273 +18% | 25 |
| 145d |  upont | 880-919 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,260 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 145d | Why-always-me | 840-879 | SellYes45¢ → 0¢ | $1,640 | +$1,640 +100% | — |
| 145d | deyi962451 | 920-959 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,798 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 145d | upont | 880-919 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,439 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 146d | zhenni | 1040-1079 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,781 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 146d | zhenni | 1080-1119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,700 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 146d | nole-ksum | 880-919 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,035 | −$41 −2.0% | — |
| 146d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 880-919 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,690 | +$25 +0.9% | 20 |
| 146d | PredictionYogi | 1120-1159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,616 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 146d | rusgreat | 880-919 | BuyNo100¢ | $3,395 | +$17 +0.5% | 20 |
| 146d | fengxiansheng | 1120-1159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,099 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 146d | Why-always-me | 840-879 | BuyYes88¢ → 0¢ | $3,200 | −$3,200 −100% | 22 |
| 146d | havetodoc | 840-879 | BuyYes80¢ → 0¢ | $2,034 | −$2,034 −100% | 23 |
| 146d | asdasde12321 | 1120-1159 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,797 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 146d | jostkia | 840-879 | BuyYes76¢ → 0¢ | $1,566 | −$1,566 −100% | 24 |
| 147d | 0xbea8…36ef | 920-959 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,192 | −$8 −0.7% | — |
| 147d | nole-ksum | 880-919 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$176 +9.3% | 21 |
| 147d |  Elonurmom | 800-839 | BuyNo95¢ → 0¢ | $7,000 | −$7,000 −100% | 21 |
| 147d | jidong9808 | 780-799 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,224 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 147d | venezuelain | 780-799 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,896 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 147d | Boss7 | 1000-1039 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,388 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 148d | Ag500k2 fills | 780-799 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,055 | +$143 +4.7% | 20 |
| 149d | sdasd231232 | 1160-1199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,064 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 149d | bipbipbop | 1160-1199 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,647 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 149d | sdasd231232 | 1160-1199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,064 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 150d | Boss73 fills | 760-779 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,583 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 151d | Boss7 | 700-719 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,244 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d |  Kuukskes | 700-719 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,450 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d | snappycoctile | 700-719 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,154 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d | zhaogangliyunlong | 700-719 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,100 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d | suyizi | 700-719 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,048 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d | loveheng | 700-719 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,685 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d | ppobb1123 | 700-719 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,505 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 700-719 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,624 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 151d | wldisfuture | 700-719 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,254 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 152d | Ilovencaa | 700-719 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,149 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 152d | suyizi | 680-699 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,301 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 152d | loveheng | 680-699 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,596 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 152d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | 680-699 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,622 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 152d | Bitgod | 680-699 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,220 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 152d | hulitest2025 | 680-699 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,600 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 152d | Boss74 fills | 1160-1199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,228 | +$39 +0.4% | 20 |
| 152d | Boss73 fills | 1200-1239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,372 | +$23 +0.2% | 20 |
| 152d | ppobb1123 | 680-699 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,984 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 153d | Kuukskes | 680-699 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,300 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 153d | Boss72 fills | 660-679 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,199 | +$26 +0.2% | 20 |
TimeTraveler200 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of May 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 800-839 means the market gives it about 100%.