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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <40 | 100% | +86 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −77 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 170d | Last-Chicory | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,412 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 170d | OnlySafeBets | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,986 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 170d | OnlySafeBets | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $9,888 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 170d | Dense-Muscat | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,531 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 170d | ylnopU | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,122 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 170d | onekey02 | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $39,406 | +$39 +0.1% | 20 |
| 170d |  jesterthegoose | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,112 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 170d | BinaryBaron4 fills | <40 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $15,895 | +$100 +0.6% | 20 |
| 170d |  LinaBell🦊 | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,892 | +$26 +0.2% | 20 |
| 170d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,320 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 170d | WCWS | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,686 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 170d | SLG007 | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,990 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 170d | SLG007 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,996 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 170d | Sirius109 | <40 | BuyYes100¢ | $4,975 | +$25 +0.5% | 20 |
| 170d | MelH | <40 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,875 | +$15 +0.8% | 20 |
| 170d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,837 | +$40 +1.0% | 20 |
| 170d | Nearcaster | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,240 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 170d | TomSargent3 fills | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,227 | +$91 +1.1% | 20 |
| 170d | ylnopU | <40 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$22 +1.1% | 20 |
| 170d | froku | <40 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | −$33 −3.3% | — |
| 170d | TomSargent | <40 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,501 | +$33 +2.2% | 21 |
| 170d | Dicccccc | 40-64 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$278 +11% | 23 |
| 170d | Dense-Muscat | <40 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$535 +18% | 25 |
| 170d | Dense-Muscat | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,976 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 170d | PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,662 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 170d |  Annica2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $34,965 | +$35 +0.1% | 20 |
| 170d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,991 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 170d | OnlySafeBets | <40 | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $2,652 | +$697 +26% | 27 |
| 170d | OnlySafeBets | 40-64 | SellYes18¢ → 0¢ | $2,310 | +$2,310 +100% | — |
| 170d | carboyant | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,045 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 170d | SLG007 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 170d |  Boss73 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,247 | +$31 +0.2% | 20 |
| 170d | rw-mehtape | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,555 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 170d | fenghuangchuangqi | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,115 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 171d | 99999767 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,374 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 171d | BinaryBaron | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,983 | +$16 +0.2% | 20 |
| 171d | JustMeZ | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,497 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 171d |  HeroAbc | <40 | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $1,306 | +$894 +68% | 30 |
| 171d | dudukos | <40 | SellYes54¢ → 100¢ | $1,080 | −$920 −85% | — |
| 171d | rusgreat | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,741 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 171d | xxtgsy | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,770 | +$38 +0.8% | 20 |
| 171d | Repulsive-Hit | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,134 | +$8 +0.7% | 20 |
| 171d | OnlySafeBets | 40-64 | BuyNo48¢ → 100¢ | $1,264 | +$1,367 +108% | 28 |
| 171d | OnlySafeBets2 fills | <40 | SellNo59¢ → 0¢ | $3,210 | +$3,210 +100% | — |
| 171d | Nearcaster | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,230 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 171d |  C78123 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 171d | Ag500k | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,979 | −$12 −0.4% | — |
| 171d | Dense-Muscat | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,900 | +$81 +2.8% | 21 |
| 171d | Ag500k | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,270 | +$30 +2.4% | 21 |
| 171d | WCWS | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,954 | +$46 +2.4% | 21 |
| 171d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,800 | +$200 +2.6% | 21 |
| 171d | Wild-Manner | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,107 | +$98 +3.2% | 21 |
| 171d | johnny-guitar | 65-89 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,050 | +$50 +4.7% | 21 |
| 171d | Boss74 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,081 | +$50 +0.4% | 20 |
| 171d | qianwaiqian007 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,521 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 171d | tianyajianke | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,751 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 171d | Curvy-PlightNew account | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$49 +4.5% | 22 |
| 171d | liemingshichuangqi | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,200 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 171d |  upont | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,910 | +$90 +0.3% | 20 |
| 171d | BinaryBaron | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,971 | +$40 +0.4% | 20 |
nimikm5,100 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <40 means the market gives it about 100%.