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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <40 | 100% | +70 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −69 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 167d | CJLabs | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,300 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 167d | 0x0dcb…a7b4 | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $10,317 | −$10 −0.1% | — |
| 167d |  Nikzzy | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,944 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 167d | kyj1435 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,505 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 167d | TomSargent | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $14,400 | −$14 −0.1% | — |
| 167d |  455yL | <40 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,012 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 167d | Dense-Muscat | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,415 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 167d |  PredictionYogi4 fills | <40 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $10,575 | +$164 +1.5% | 21 |
| 167d | beatyesterday | <40 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,861 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 167d |  Prexpect2 fills | <40 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $14,057 | +$116 +0.8% | 20 |
| 167d | shiratoki | <40 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,137 | +$13 +1.1% | 20 |
| 167d | shiratoki | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,137 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 167d | BinaryBaron3 fills | <40 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $6,705 | +$201 +3.0% | 21 |
| 167d | Nimble-Outhouse | <40 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,186 | −$121 −10% | — |
| 167d | Last-Chicory | 40-64 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,032 | −$32 −3.1% | — |
| 167d | carboyant | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,107 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 167d | BinaryBaron | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,062 | +$29 +1.4% | 20 |
| 167d |  FraterTetractous | <40 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$26 +2.4% | 21 |
| 167d | yolol | 40-64 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,920 | +$60 +2.0% | 21 |
| 167d |  upont | <40 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,959 | +$61 +3.1% | 21 |
| 167d | SLG007 | 40-64 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,940 | +$60 +3.1% | 21 |
| 167d |  y111m11 | <40 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,056 | +$44 +4.2% | 21 |
| 167d | SLG007 | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,935 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 167d | Wuk0ng | <40 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,635 | −$123 −7.5% | — |
| 167d | Ag500k | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,049 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 168d | TomSargent3 fills | <40 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $6,968 | +$1,486 +21% | 26 |
| 168d | Dense-Muscat | 40-64 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$418 +14% | 24 |
| 168d | TomSargent | 40-64 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,414 | +$252 +18% | 25 |
| 168d | upont2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,740 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 168d | onekey02 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $67,088 | +$67 +0.1% | 20 |
| 168d | Intelligent-Tax3 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo100¢ | $18,109 | +$91 +0.5% | 20 |
| 168d | Nikzzy | 40-64 | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $3,896 | +$1,094 +28% | 27 |
| 168d | Nikzzy | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,941 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 168d | rusgreat | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,845 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 168d | tradexyzforli | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 168d | xxtgsy | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,600 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 168d | 223659 | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,332 | +$16 +0.3% | 20 |
| 168d | Last-Chicory | 65-89 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,139 | −$19 −0.9% | — |
| 168d | FieryPhoenix | <40 | SellNo37¢ → 0¢ | $1,392 | +$1,392 +100% | — |
| 168d | PredictionYogi | 40-64 | BuyNo47¢ → 100¢ | $1,332 | +$1,502 +113% | 28 |
| 168d | PredictionYogi | 40-64 | SellYes53¢ → 0¢ | $1,044 | +$1,044 +100% | — |
| 168d | bipbipbop | 40-64 | BuyYes64¢ → 0¢ | $1,245 | −$1,245 −100% | 28 |
| 168d | ppobb1123 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,242 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 168d |  C78123 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 168d | 0x0dcb…a7b43 fills | <40 | BuyYes41¢ → 100¢ | $3,892 | +$5,594 +144% | 30 |
| 168d | SLG007 | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$26 +1.4% | 20 |
| 168d | Ag500k | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,011 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 168d | Curvy-Plight | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,184 | +$16 +1.3% | 21 |
| 168d | kyj1435 | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,486 | +$21 +1.4% | 20 |
| 168d | mintchocolate | <40 | BuyNo71¢ → 0¢ | $1,255 | −$1,255 −100% | 28 |
| 168d | CJLabs | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,310 | +$42 +3.2% | 21 |
| 168d | bipbipbop | 65-89 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,536 | −$97 −6.3% | — |
| 168d | suyizi | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,372 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 168d |  Meow12 | <40 | SellNo71¢ → 0¢ | $1,020 | +$1,020 +100% | — |
| 168d | Meow12 | <40 | BuyNo73¢ → 0¢ | $1,050 | −$1,050 −100% | 27 |
| 168d | bipbipbop | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,518 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 168d | jostkia | <40 | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $1,166 | −$1,166 −100% | 26 |
| 168d |  Boss7 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,371 | +$21 +0.2% | 20 |
| 168d | yolol | 65-89 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$83 +6.4% | 22 |
| 168d | Ag500k | 65-89 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,551 | +$135 +8.7% | 21 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 7 12:00 PM ET to May 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <40 means the market gives it about 100%.