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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 920-959 | 100% | +60 pts | +96 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580-599 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-639 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 640-679 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 680-719 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 720-759 | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 760-799 | 0% | 0 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 800-839 | 0% | — | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 840-879 | 0% | 0 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 880-919 | 0% | −54 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 960-999 | 0% | −2 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1000-1039 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1040-1079 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1080-1119 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1120-1159 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1160-1199 | 0% | — | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1200-1239 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1240-1279 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1280-1319 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1320-1359 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1360-1399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1400+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 327d | LBZone | 920-959 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,181 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 327d |  ChaeChae | 920-959 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 327d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 920-959 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,976 | +$43 +0.6% | 20 |
| 327d | easymoney3 | 880-919 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,369 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 327d |  flow-trader-at-optiver | 880-919 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,559 | +$41 +0.9% | 20 |
| 327d |  LinaBell🦊 | 920-959 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,214 | +$11 +0.9% | 20 |
| 328d | omaar123 | 960-999 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 328d | FollowChart | 1280-1319 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,282 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 328d | baobaom | 1040-1079 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,338 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 328d | yourobviousmom | 1000-1039 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 328d | ChaeChae | 1000-1039 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,499 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 328d |  Alphax3 fills | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,326 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 329d | LargeMeme | 800-839 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,062 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 329d |  ShotaniOhei | 1040-1079 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,721 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 329d | ChaeChae | 1040-1079 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,499 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 329d | ChaeChae2 fills | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,181 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 329d | ChaeChae | 1080-1119 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,498 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d | yshi | 1040-1079 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,415 | +$9 +0.6% | 20 |
| 330d | yshi | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,511 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 330d | yyyyyyyyyyyyyyang | 1320-1359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,279 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 330d |  loser-star | 1280-1319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,090 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d | ChaeChae2 fills | 800-839 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,064 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d |  ElonSpam | 1400+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,343 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d | yourobviousmom2 fills | 800-839 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,640 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 330d | ChaeChae | 1200-1239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,595 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 330d | ChaeChae | 1240-1279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,799 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 331d | yyyyyyyyyyyyyyang | 1320-1359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,278 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 331d | yyyyyyyyyyyyyyang | 800-839 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,488 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 331d |  Elanus | 800-839 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,254 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 331d |  alex101 | 760-799 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,534 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 331d | yshi | 760-799 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 331d | yshi | 1240-1279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,716 | +$8 +0.3% | 20 |
| 332d | yshi | 1280-1319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,491 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 332d | Elanus | 720-759 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,227 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 332d | ballboy95 | 720-759 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 332d | Boring-Sorghum2 fills | 760-799 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,587 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 332d | Elanus | 720-759 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,220 | +$10 +0.8% | 20 |
| 332d | Boring-Sorghum | 720-759 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,014 | +$48 +0.8% | 20 |
| 333d | Improbable-Citron | 680-719 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,648 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 333d | yshi | 1320-1359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 333d |  itachigod | 640-679 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,000 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 334d | Boring-Sorghum2 fills | 680-719 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,185 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 334d | yshi | 1360-1399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,491 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 334d | alex101 | 640-679 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,107 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 337d | Abandoned-Counsel | 540-559 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,304 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 338d | 0x97cc…bbbf | 540-559 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,220 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 340d | godson02 | 520-539 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,098 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 341d | godson02 | 460-479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 342d |  madril | 440-459 | SellNo>99¢ | $24,063 | −$48 −0.2% | — |
| 342d | godson02 | 440-459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 342d | madril | 440-459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,087 | +$24 +0.1% | 20 |
| 342d | polybet2 fills | 440-459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $49,950 | +$50 +0.1% | 20 |
| 342d | itachigod | 440-459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,600 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 342d | godson02 | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,249 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 343d | godson02 | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,059 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 344d |  TrueLove | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,028 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 344d |  KatArc | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,063 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 344d | godson02 | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,099 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 344d | internetcapitalmarket | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,313 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 345d | MAGA.ONE | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,946 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
flow-trader-at-optiver4,600 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of November 2025. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 920-959 means the market gives it about 100%.