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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 320-339 | 100% | +85 pts | +95 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | 0 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −63 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −19 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | −3 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d | Poiuztrewq | 320-339 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,796 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 4d |  hirichzhou | 320-339 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,071 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 4d | saftytrader | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,154 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 4d |  PredictionYogi | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d |  Gustav4-1 | 320-339 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,408 | +$14 +1.0% | 20 |
| 4d | Gustav4-1 | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,878 | +$19 +1.0% | 20 |
| 4d | RootWoot | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,032 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 4d | RootWoot | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,335 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 4d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,112 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | bipbipbop | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,188 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 4d |  Espagan | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,767 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 4d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,573 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 4d |  upont | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,959 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 |
| 4d | Actual-Ladle2 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,670 | +$35 +0.9% | 20 |
| 4d | tianjiyuyunzhilu3 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,375 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 4d |  ElonSpam | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | 6Eulalia-Piddle12 | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,009 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 4d | GoldenSpin | 320-339 | SellNo71¢ → 0¢ | $1,005 | +$1,005 +100% | — |
| 4d | Elowen-Gotobed | 380-399 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,360 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 4d | Intelligent-Tax | 360-379 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $9,730 | +$270 +2.8% | 21 |
| 4d | RootWoot | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,124 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 4d | JolyonAshkettle | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,521 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | Barnaby-Pauncefote | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,084 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | welcometowinnercircle | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,668 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | PredictionYogi | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,009 | +$11 +1.1% | 20 |
| 4d | CakeBake | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,545 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 4d | CakeBake | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | venezuelain | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,390 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 440-459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,145 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | Actual-Ladle | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,660 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 4d | miyugyiftu66 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,022 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 4d | upont2 fills | 440-459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,178 | +$18 +0.2% | 20 |
| 5d | Baristas | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,283 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 5d | d008 | 400-419 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$52 +1.7% | 20 |
| 5d |  decacepa | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $3,288 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 5d | onekey02 | 460-479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 5d | upont2 fills | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,578 | +$18 +0.5% | 20 |
| 5d | Chepaik | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,940 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 5d | Strarper | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,395 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 5d | rosejennie | 460-479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,240 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 5d | Cumberpatch | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,133 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 5d | Ottilie-Wildblood | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,391 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 5d |  UnstoppableLoxodont2 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,422 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 5d | Araminta-Sallow | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,687 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 5d | carboyant | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,173 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 5d | 222Sera-phina92 | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,447 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 5d | bipbipbop | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,264 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 5d | win-win-win99 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,491 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 5d | bipbipbop | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,609 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 5d | Chepaik | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,046 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 5d | Donkolo | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,296 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 5d | CakeBake | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 6d | niuniuhgir | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,898 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 6d |  Mei-ji2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,871 | +$14 +0.4% | 20 |
| 6d | Mei-ji | 500+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,679 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 6d | zhenni | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,497 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 6d | jinitaime | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,151 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 6d | useeew | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,077 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 6d | gmgmmm | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,119 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 6d | CakeBake | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $3,337 | −$10 −0.3% | — |
fishpapav949 shares
magnetick557 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 13 12:00 PM ET to October 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 320-339 means the market gives it about 100%.