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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 260-279 | 100% | +82 pts | +90 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | $28.7K | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −3 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −6 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −22 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −55 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | $17K | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −21 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | $8.03K | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −6 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | $438 | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −1 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | $14.1 | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | $725 | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23h |  Mei-ji4 fills | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,549 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 23h |  DvePlotnieBanki | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,461 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 23h | Poiuztrewq | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,497 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 23h | RootWoot | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,494 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 23h |  Rex416 | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,498 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 1d |  Archeroon | 260-279 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,802 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 1d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,206 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d |  LinaBell🦊 | 260-279 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,400 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | ym-mzt1 | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$12 +1.0% | 21 |
| 1d | Intelligent-Tax | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,161 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 1d |  Gustav4-1 | 280-299 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,191 | +$132 +11% | 25 |
| 1d |  ElonSpam | 260-279 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,121 | +$138 +12% | 25 |
| 1d | Actual-Ladle | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,126 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 1d |  PredictionYogi | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,615 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d |  upont | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,137 | +$21 +0.3% | 20 |
| 1d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,696 | +$23 +0.4% | 20 |
| 1d | Actual-Ladle | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,110 | +$20 +0.5% | 20 |
| 1d | MakeMoney365 | 300-319 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,130 | +$20 +1.7% | 21 |
| 1d | MakeMoney365 | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,146 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 1d |  67BrainRot | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | Actual-Ladle | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,051 | −$13 −0.3% | — |
| 1d | upont2 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,540 | +$62 +1.7% | 21 |
| 1d | Eulaliabrown | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,106 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 1d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,219 | +$16 +0.3% | 20 |
| 1d | 0xB177dvgu7 | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,201 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 1d | 6Eulalia-Piddle12 | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,012 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 1d | 6Eulalia-Piddle12 | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,012 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 1d | 8Theodora-Snodgrass | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,174 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 1d | Peregrine-Alefounder11 | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,021 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 1d | Peregrine-Alefounder11 | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,020 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 1d | 222Sera-phina92 | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,416 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 1d | 222Sera-phina92 | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,453 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 1d | Intelligent-Tax | 300-319 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $8,685 | +$343 +4.0% | 24 |
| 1d | 111Cleophus-Grimble | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,216 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 1d | CakeBake | 320-339 | BuyNo100¢ | $5,034 | +$25 +0.5% | 20 |
| 1d | welcometowinnercircle2 fills | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,443 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | grokel | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | xiaojido202 | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,859 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | clggzz | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,099 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 |
| 1d | Actual-Ladle | 320-339 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$63 +1.6% | 21 |
| 1d |  stauffen | 260-279 | SellNo74¢ → 0¢ | $1,495 | +$1,495 +100% | — |
| 1d | carboyant | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,798 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | upont3 fills | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,969 | +$35 +0.7% | 21 |
| 1d | srilakshmi | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,190 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 1d | upont3 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,230 | +$17 +0.3% | 20 |
| 2d | ElonSimp | 240-259 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,744 | +$45 +2.6% | 20 |
| 2d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,258 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 2d | Rusty-Afterlife | 240-259 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,500 | +$225 +6.4% | 21 |
| 2d | Donkolo | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,334 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 2d | CakeBake | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 2d | upont | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,797 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 2d | Barnaby-Pauncefote | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,086 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 2d | rosejennie | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,242 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 2d | JolyonAshkettle | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,523 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 2d | Ottilie-Wildblood | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,392 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 2d | Peregrine-Alefounder11 | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,019 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 2d | 6Eulalia-Piddle12 | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,011 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 2d | 8Theodora-Snodgrass | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,173 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 2d | d0082 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,200 | +$50 +2.3% | 22 |
| 2d | Actual-Ladle | 220-239 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,030 | +$32 +0.8% | 20 |
KickstandBot771 shares
AmiteshGupta400 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 16 12:00 PM ET to October 23, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 260-279 means the market gives it about 100%.