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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 280-299 | 100% | +51 pts | +97 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | 0 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −9 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −28 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −11 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 365d |  rafflez | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,556 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 365d | 96ljAlex | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,028 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 365d | public1.tweezers | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,810 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 365d |  LinaBell🦊3 fills | 280-299 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $12,067 | −$340 −2.8% | — |
| 365d | BeN | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,698 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 365d | AlexPro2 fills | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,737 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 365d |  OuchMyBalls2 fills | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,292 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 365d | takeme2themoon2 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $28,861 | +$29 +0.1% | 20 |
| 365d |  kiki.aoe | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 365d |  Annica2 fills | 280-299 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $8,981 | −$786 −8.8% | — |
| 365d | takeme2themoon | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,123 | +$29 +0.1% | 20 |
| 365d |  duderr2 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,539 | +$16 +0.2% | 20 |
| 365d | astromage | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,233 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 365d | public1.tweezers2 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,806 | +$14 +0.4% | 20 |
| 365d | astromage | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,623 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 365d | LinaBell🦊2 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $11,688 | +$264 +2.3% | 21 |
| 365d | wokerjoesleeper | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,988 | +$12 +0.6% | 20 |
| 365d | glarity | 280-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,106 | +$25 +0.6% | 20 |
| 365d |  jesterthegoose | 280-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,988 | +$12 +0.6% | 20 |
| 365d |  lambda15 | 280-299 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,384 | +$21 +1.5% | 20 |
| 365d | OuchMyBalls | 280-299 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,319 | +$51 +3.9% | 20 |
| 365d | MasterSplinter053 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,585 | +$403 +8.8% | 20 |
| 365d | ShivaLemire | 280-299 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,097 | −$223 −11% | — |
| 365d | RickRockRick | 280-299 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,936 | −$305 −10% | — |
| 365d | Attractive-Trowel | 280-299 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,370 | +$97 +7.0% | 20 |
| 365d |  Prexpect2 fills | 280-299 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $6,753 | −$299 −4.4% | — |
| 365d |  ElonSpam2 fills | 280-299 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $9,555 | −$352 −3.7% | — |
| 365d | public1.tweezers | 460-479 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,933 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 365d | Annica3 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $4,428 | +$891 +20% | 26 |
| 365d | ElonSpam | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,247 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 365d | Simmelariii | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,084 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 365d | squishyturtle | 280-299 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,000 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 365d | Prexpect | 280-299 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,913 | +$78 +4.1% | 21 |
| 365d |  Gustav4 | 260-279 | BuyYes84¢ → 0¢ | $1,127 | −$1,127 −100% | 25 |
| 365d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo77¢ → 0¢ | $3,057 | −$3,057 −100% | 28 |
| 365d |  UwO | 260-279 | BuyYes90¢ → 0¢ | $4,158 | −$4,158 −100% | 23 |
| 365d | MasterSplinter05 | 280-299 | BuyNo83¢ → 0¢ | $6,370 | −$6,370 −100% | 26 |
| 365d | ElonSpam2 fills | 260-279 | BuyYes88¢ → 0¢ | $3,113 | −$3,113 −100% | 24 |
| 365d | Annica | 260-279 | SellYes81¢ → 0¢ | $1,013 | +$1,013 +100% | — |
| 365d | Annica | 260-279 | BuyYes75¢ → 0¢ | $1,181 | −$1,181 −100% | 28 |
| 365d |  Alwarez | 260-279 | BuyYes79¢ → 0¢ | $1,100 | −$1,100 −100% | 27 |
| 365d | MasterSplinter05 | 260-279 | BuyYes65¢ → 0¢ | $1,357 | −$1,357 −100% | 30 |
| 365d |  PredictionYogi4 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,429 | +$60 +0.5% | 20 |
| 365d | UwO | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,052 | +$28 +0.1% | 20 |
| 365d | Victornettoyeur3 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $6,678 | +$349 +5.2% | 21 |
| 365d | zeus76 | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,767 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 365d | Gustav4 | 280-299 | BuyYes58¢ → 100¢ | $1,064 | +$767 +72% | 30 |
| 365d | zeus76 | 300-319 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$124 +3.1% | 21 |
| 365d | edwinkang | 280-299 | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$1,408 +70% | 30 |
| 365d |  ShotaniOhei | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,019 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 365d | jesuschristcoded | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,289 | −$14 −0.3% | — |
| 365d | XZZD | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,256 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 365d | jeyjeyjey | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,142 | +$18 +0.3% | 20 |
| 365d | POOAS | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 365d | Victornettoyeur2 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,838 | +$23 +0.8% | 20 |
| 365d |  E61hi | 320-339 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,145 | +$13 +0.6% | 20 |
| 365d | jesuschristcoded | 320-339 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,259 | +$44 +1.0% | 20 |
| 365d |  Vida2 | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,239 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 365d | POOAS | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,499 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 365d | ShizzleBrah | 300-319 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,047 | +$113 +11% | 23 |
OuchMyBalls10,000 shares
🤺Yoon18nom622 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 17 12:00 PM ET to October 24, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 280-299 means the market gives it about 100%.