Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 320-339 | 100% | +72 pts | +99 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −1 pts | −24 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −14 pts | −26 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −39 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −29 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −12 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −4 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −2 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −12 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −7 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | −2 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d | RootWoot | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,276 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 14d | patouossa | 320-339 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,444 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 14d | niceShare | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,216 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 14d |  Espagan | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,215 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 14d | jiuchuanplus | 320-339 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,069 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 14d |  Prexpect | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 14d | cool.guide | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 14d | Timely-CrustNew account | 320-339 | SellYes100¢ | $1,035 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 14d | Prexpect | 320-339 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,852 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 14d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,056 | +$25 +0.5% | 20 |
| 14d | Poortorich | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,682 | +$24 +0.5% | 20 |
| 14d |  Gustav4-1 | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,360 | +$31 +1.3% | 20 |
| 14d | Espagan | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,180 | +$16 +1.3% | 20 |
| 14d | Espagan | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,190 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 14d | zlfi | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,038 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 14d |  y111m11 | 320-339 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,347 | +$150 +6.4% | 22 |
| 14d |  AndreaPirlo2 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,265 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 14d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,804 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 14d |  PredictionYogi | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 14d | Intelligent-Tax | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $5,099 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 15d | AM9691 | 320-339 | SellYes51¢ → 100¢ | $1,358 | −$1,320 −97% | — |
| 15d | AndreaPirlo | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,930 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | Intelligent-Tax5 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,317 | +$114 +1.2% | 20 |
| 15d | PredictionYogi2 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,826 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 15d | Intelligent-Tax2 fills | 340-359 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $4,315 | +$668 +15% | 24 |
| 15d | welcometowinnercircle5 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,591 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | RootWoot | 340-359 | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,102 | +$175 +16% | 25 |
| 15d | RootWoot | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,082 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 15d | welcometowinnercircle | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,349 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | kakdelaa | 340-359 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,253 | +$223 +18% | 25 |
| 15d | Ottilie-Wildblood | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,369 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | JolyonAshkettle | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,510 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | Araminta-Sallow | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,667 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d |  WaHoooo | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,151 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 15d | qianqianx | 360-379 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,309 | +$35 +2.7% | 21 |
| 15d | zlfi | 360-379 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$39 +3.9% | 21 |
| 15d | hetacz | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,993 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 15d | RootWoot | 380-399 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$88 +8.8% | 22 |
| 15d | RootWoot | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,134 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 15d | miyugyiftu66 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,298 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | venezuelain | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,989 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | xiaojido202 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,590 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | Gustav4-1 | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,517 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 15d | Needy-Antelope | 380-399 | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,425 | +$135 +9.5% | 22 |
| 15d |  Boss72 fills | 300-319 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,345 | −$54 −0.7% | — |
| 15d | RootWoot | 320-339 | SellNo82¢ → 0¢ | $1,909 | +$1,909 +100% | — |
| 15d | carboyant | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,038 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | Actual-Ladle | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,800 | +$18 +0.5% | 20 |
| 15d | Baristas | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,541 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 15d | Donkolo | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,454 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 15d | Actual-Ladle | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,890 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 15d | xiaojido202 | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,344 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | carboyant | 400-419 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,811 | −$189 −10% | — |
| 15d | carboyant | 420-439 | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,899 | −$101 −5.3% | — |
| 15d | venezuelain | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 15d | carboyant | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,636 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
| 15d | Actual-Ladle | 280-299 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,830 | +$64 +1.7% | 20 |
| 15d | carboyant | 360-379 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,670 | −$184 −11% | — |
| 15d | carboyant | 380-399 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,338 | −$62 −4.7% | — |
| 15d | Actual-Ladle | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,840 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
magnetick1,200 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 2 12:00 PM ET to October 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 320-339 means the market gives it about 100%.
