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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 300-319 | 26% | +7 pts | +17 pts | 25¢ · 26¢ (1¢) | $13.3K | in 3d |
| 320-339 | 21% | +11 pts | +13 pts | 20¢ · 22¢ (2¢) | $17K | in 3d |
| 280-299 | 19% | −4 pts | +10 pts | 18¢ · 20¢ (2¢) | $24.8K | in 3d |
| 340-359 | 11% | +6 pts | +3 pts | 11¢ · 12¢ (1¢) | $14.3K | in 3d |
| 260-279 | 9% | −13 pts | −2 pts | 7¢ · 10¢ (3¢) | $26.8K | in 3d |
| 360-379 | 7% | +5 pts | 0 pts | 7¢ · 8¢ (1¢) | $11.9K | in 3d |
| 380-399 | 5% | +3 pts | −2 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (<1¢) | $8.86K | in 3d |
| 400-419 | 2% | +1 pts | −3 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $8.94K | in 3d |
| 240-259 | 2% | −11 pts | −8 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | $25.6K | in 3d |
| 420-439 | 1% | +1 pts | −2 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $8.51K | in 3d |
| 440-459 | 1% | 0 pts | −4 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $7.39K | in 3d |
| 460-479 | <1% | 0 pts | −2 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $12.5K | in 3d |
| 220-239 | <1% | −5 pts | −9 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $26.4K | in 3d |
| 480-499 | <1% | — | −3 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $24.5K | in 3d |
| 180-199 | <1% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | $18.2K | in 3d |
| 200-219 | <1% | −1 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | $29K | in 3d |
| 500-519 | <1% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | $10.9K | in 3d |
| 520-539 | <1% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | $3K | in 3d |
| 540-559 | <1% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | $3.73K | in 3d |
| 560-579 | <1% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | $3K | in 3d |
| 580+ | <1% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | $5.87K | in 3d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h |  stauffen | 320-339 | BuyNo84¢ → 79¢ | $2,850 | −$157 −5.5% | 28 |
| 7h | Donkolo | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,312 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 7h | mychoisisbig | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,844 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 10h | minutemans | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,109 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 15h |  decacepa | 580+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,759 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 17h |  ElonSpam | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,937 | −$6 −0.1% | 20 |
| 18h |  Elonurmom | 240-259 | BuyNo95¢ → 98¢ | $2,000 | +$76 +3.8% | 22 |
| 18h | Elonurmom | 280-299 | BuyNo81¢ | $2,000 | −$0 −0.0% | 25 |
| 20h |  UnstoppableLoxodont | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,141 | +$10 +0.3% | 20 |
| 22h | ElonSpam2 fills | 180-199 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,192 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | hijaxk | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,023 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | himmjj | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,018 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | jinitaime | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,155 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | useeew | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,080 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | gmgmmm | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,122 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1d | Baristas | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,344 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 2d | mychoisisbig | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,839 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 2d | decacepa | 580+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,760 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 3d | Poiuztrewq | 340-359 | BuyNo95¢ → 89¢ | $1,072 | −$75 −7.0% | 21 |
| 4d | CakeBake | 480-499 | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $1,895 | +$16 +0.9% | 20 |
| 6d | CakeBake | 500-519 | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $2,549 | +$17 +0.7% | 20 |
| 7d | CakeBake | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,988 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 7d | hetacz | Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,499 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
Mei-ji5,000 shares
Sugarina3,000 shares
.SUNDAY.1,500 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 20 12:00 PM ET to October 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 26¢ for 300-319 means the market gives it about 26%.