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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1080-1119 | 100% | +27 pts | +79 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500-519 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 520-539 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 540-559 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 560-579 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 580-599 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 600-639 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 640-679 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 680-719 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 720-759 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 760-799 | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 800-839 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 840-879 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 880-919 | 0% | — | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 920-959 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 960-999 | 0% | −2 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1000-1039 | 0% | −15 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1040-1079 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1120-1159 | 0% | −18 pts | −35 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1160-1199 | 0% | −10 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1200-1239 | 0% | 0 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1240-1279 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1280-1319 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1320-1359 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1360-1399 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1400+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 357d | TheLastOfMachine | 1080-1119 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,118 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 357d |  Annica | 1240-1279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,004 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 358d |  MINGGE520 | 1280-1319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,900 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 358d |  MasonsConqueredRome | 1040-1079 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,217 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 358d | MINGGE520 | 1360-1399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,695 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 358d |  vamnizar | 1320-1359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,810 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 358d |  Schizoaffective.On.Acid | 1360-1399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,801 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 358d | MINGGE520 | 1360-1399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,700 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 359d | Victornettoyeur2 fills | 1040-1079 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,767 | +$21 +0.8% | 20 |
| 360d | MAGA.ONE | 1000-1039 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 361d | takeme2themoon2 fills | 960-999 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,715 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 367d | Schizoaffective.On.Acid2 fills | 840-879 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,448 | +$19 +0.1% | 20 |
| 367d | Schizoaffective.On.Acid | 800-839 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,379 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 374d | fhgfcccc | 680-719 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,474 | −$16 −0.6% | — |
| 374d | fhgfcccc | 680-719 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,487 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 374d | jhgunjknjk | 680-719 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,104 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 374d | jhgunjknjk | 680-719 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,106 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 376d | Annica | 1360-1399 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,530 | +$39 +2.6% | 20 |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of October 2025. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 1080-1119 means the market gives it about 100%.