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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90-114 | >99% | +90 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | $92.5K | ended |
| 65-89 | <1% | −49 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $93.5K | ended |
| 115-139 | <1% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $133K | ended |
| 140-164 | <1% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $29.1K | ended |
| 165-189 | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $13.5K | ended |
| 190-214 | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $5.03K | ended |
| 215-239 | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $30 | ended |
| 240+ | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $30 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26m |  Mei-ji | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,608 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 26m |  PredictionYogi | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,043 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 26m | win-win-win99 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,377 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 36m |  upont3 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,282 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 1h | xiao2222 | 90-114 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,504 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 1h | ElonSimp | 90-114 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,992 | −$7 −0.4% | — |
| 1h | Ruddy-Beret | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,199 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 1h | Elonboy | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,208 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 1h | Elonboy | 65-89 | BuyNo96¢ → >99¢ | $3,000 | +$127 +4.2% | 22 |
| 1h |  wakuwaku32 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $2,190 | +$20 +0.9% | 20 |
| 2h | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | 65-89 | BuyYes91¢ → <1¢ | $1,104 | −$1,104 −100% | 23 |
| 2h | Darik | 65-89 | BuyYes92¢ → <1¢ | $1,799 | −$1,798 −100% | 23 |
| 3h | srilakshmi | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,728 | +$10 +0.4% | 20 |
| 7h | MakeMoney3652 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $4,049 | +$20 +0.5% | 20 |
| 8h |  y111m11 | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $4,130 | +$31 +0.8% | 20 |
| 9h | ym-mzt1 | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $2,572 | +$22 +0.9% | 20 |
| 10h | PredictionYogi | 65-89 | BuyYes85¢ → <1¢ | $1,446 | −$1,445 −100% | 25 |
| 10h | ElonSimp | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,878 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 10h | zhenni | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,542 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 13h | upont2 fills | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,516 | +$21 +0.5% | 20 |
| 13h | onekey02 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,034 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 17h | Mei-ji | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,356 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 18h | Actual-Ladle | 115-139 | BuyNo97¢ → >99¢ | $4,130 | +$115 +2.8% | 21 |
| 21h | CakeBake | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,416 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 23h | ElonSimp | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,344 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 23h | upont2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,961 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 1d | clggzz | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,329 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 1d | 0xf14e…6173 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026? | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,169 | +$331 +28% | 24 |
| 4d | clggzz | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $1,482 | +$17 +1.2% | 20 |
| 4d |  ElonJail | 90-114 | BuyNo78¢ → <1¢ | $1,346 | −$1,345 −100% | 22 |
Mei-ji6,670 shares
Sugarina4,975 sharesPredictionYogi4,375 shares
Kaiji1233,974 shares
Kurumi.chan.2,034 shares
fishpapav373 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 22 12:00 PM ET to October 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: >99¢ for 90-114 means the market gives it about >99%.