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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 37% | −3 pts | — | 36¢ · 38¢ (2¢) | $4K | in 2d |
| 65-89 | 36% | −1 pts | — | 35¢ · 37¢ (2¢) | $3.06K | in 2d |
| 90-114 | 17% | +2 pts | — | 16¢ · 18¢ (2¢) | $2.9K | in 2d |
| 115-139 | 5% | 0 pts | — | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | $1.12K | in 2d |
| <40 | 4% | +1 pts | — | 3¢ · 5¢ (2¢) | $3.86K | in 2d |
| 140-164 | 2% | 0 pts | — | 1¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $9.19K | in 2d |
| 165-189 | 1% | 0 pts | — | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $1.85K | in 2d |
| 190-214 | <1% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $3.72K | in 2d |
| 215-239 | <1% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $3.64K | in 2d |
| 240+ | <1% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $4.45K | in 2d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h | clggzz2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $2,886 | −$13 −0.5% | 21 |
Mei-ji3,743 shares
ComradeCat512 shares
SupremeGambler261 shares
Demet3r200 shares
ElonJail173 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 24 12:00 PM ET to October 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 37¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 37%.