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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 280-299 | 100% | +78 pts | +94 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0 pts | −46 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −1 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | −1 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | 0 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −3 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −16 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −50 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −5 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 379d | Poory | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,299 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 379d | Poiuztrewq | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,161 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 379d | x222yz | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,234 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 379d | 0x265f…a448 | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,797 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 379d | Bitgod | 280-299 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,498 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 379d | XZZD | 300-319 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,502 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 379d | AlexPro | 260-279 | SellNo>99¢ | $13,815 | −$14 −0.1% | — |
| 379d |  Prexpect | 280-299 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $8,250 | +$150 +1.8% | 21 |
| 379d |  Gustav4 | 280-299 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $2,116 | +$284 +13% | 24 |
| 379d | wokerjoesleeper | 260-279 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,446 | +$364 +25% | 27 |
| 379d |  Annica | 260-279 | SellYes24¢ → 0¢ | $1,118 | +$1,118 +100% | — |
| 379d | Poory | 260-279 | BuyYes49¢ → 0¢ | $1,041 | −$1,041 −100% | 30 |
| 379d |  junseokletsg0 | 280-299 | SellYes47¢ → 100¢ | $1,028 | −$1,140 −111% | — |
| 379d | XZZD | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,499 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 379d | glarity | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,628 | +$16 +0.1% | 20 |
| 379d |  MariusK | 280-299 | SellYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,071 | −$272 −25% | — |
| 379d | 0x265f…a4482 fills | 280-299 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $2,678 | +$415 +16% | 24 |
| 379d | Toporceanu | 280-299 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,964 | +$252 +6.4% | 22 |
| 379d | Annica | 280-299 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,931 | +$217 +11% | 23 |
| 379d | pol762 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,908 | +$203 +3.4% | 21 |
| 379d |  OuchMyBalls | 280-299 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $2,105 | +$408 +19% | 25 |
| 379d | Rogu | 260-279 | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $2,700 | −$479 −18% | — |
| 379d | x222yz | 260-279 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,113 | +$123 +11% | 23 |
| 379d | Proficient123 | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 379d | diseax | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,722 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 379d | astromage2 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,993 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 379d | DoubleKellogs | 280-299 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,028 | +$226 +22% | 25 |
| 379d | DonaldMusk1 | 320-339 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,451 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 379d | glarity | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 379d | DonaldMusk1 | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,974 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 379d | etrr2 fills | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,417 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 379d | iuuuuuk | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,167 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 379d | ouu7 | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,888 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 379d | iuuuuuk | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,993 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 379d | ouu7 | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,883 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 379d | benrt | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,820 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 379d | kuyyyt | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,546 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 379d | bbbj | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,646 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 379d | 64fdfg | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,226 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 379d | kuyyyt | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,550 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 379d | 64fdfg | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,265 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 379d | etrr | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,419 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 379d | Toporceanu | 240-259 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,529 | +$138 +2.5% | 21 |
| 380d |  ElonSpam | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,347 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 380d | astromage4 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,258 | +$25 +0.2% | 20 |
| 380d | Annica3 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,473 | +$12 +0.1% | 20 |
| 380d | cipherpilot | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,347 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 380d | Poory2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,251 | +$11 +0.5% | 20 |
| 380d | Gustav4 | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,622 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 380d | leiger | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,447 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 380d |  imp2 fills | 320-339 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,798 | +$59 +2.1% | 20 |
| 380d | gtet58 | 420-439 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,072 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 380d |  Nensha | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,875 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 380d | Annica | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,111 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 380d |  sunflowerboy | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,989 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 380d | gd77 | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,228 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 380d | Matelleti | 200-219 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,222 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 380d | tmui | 360-379 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,126 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 380d | tmui | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,994 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 380d | 0rocky007 | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,173 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
tomatosauce4,600 shares
🤺Yoon18nom2,041 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 3 12:00 PM ET to October 10, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 280-299 means the market gives it about 100%.