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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-49 | 100% | +78 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <10 | 0% | −22 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 10-19 | 0% | −15 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-29 | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 30-39 | 0% | −25 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 50-59 | 0% | −15 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60+ | 0% | −13 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 399d |  HolyMoses7 | 20-29 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,170 | +$25 +2.1% | 21 |
ElBibliotecario1 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 18 12:00 PM ET to September 19, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-49 means the market gives it about 100%.