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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 100% | +56 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −49 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48d | jabali-furioso | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,707 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 48d |  upont | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,930 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 48d | Bankrupt-Loser | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,299 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 48d | beatyesterday4 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $22,674 | +$63 +0.3% | 20 |
| 48d | beatyesterday4 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $21,434 | +$61 +0.3% | 20 |
| 48d | Maxiicuervoo | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,796 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 49d |  PredictionYogi | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,153 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 49d | ElonSimp | 90-114 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,352 | +$64 +4.7% | 22 |
| 49d | Actual-Ladle | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,030 | +$59 +2.0% | 21 |
| 49d | bipbipbop | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,247 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 49d | upont | 65-89 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,317 | +$27 +2.1% | 21 |
| 49d | carboyant | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,320 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 49d | froku | 65-89 | SellYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,685 | −$149 −8.9% | — |
| 49d |  Sugarina | 65-89 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,182 | +$29 +2.5% | 21 |
| 49d | YuzuLemon | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,307 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 49d | Amir10001 | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$81 +1.6% | 20 |
| 49d | upont | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,003 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 50d |  flypig-lucky | 40-64 | SellYes49¢ → 0¢ | $1,206 | +$1,206 +100% | — |
| 50d | CakeBake | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,116 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 51d | dddtrips | 40-64 | SellNo49¢ → 100¢ | $1,470 | −$1,530 −104% | — |
| 53d |  TweetPulse.Live | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
dz1ft21,543 shares
NBALOL635 shares
Lux150 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 3 12:00 PM ET to September 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 100%.