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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 300-319 | 100% | +60 pts | +95 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | — | −49 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −20 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | −6 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −6 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −21 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 320-339 | 0% | −40 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −11 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 382d | CoinMarketCap. | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,215 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 382d |  japjapjap | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,717 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 382d |  junseokletsg0 | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,434 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 382d | Poiuztrewq | 300-319 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,178 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 382d |  Gustav4 | 300-319 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,493 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 382d |  Annica3 fills | 300-319 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $8,363 | +$285 +3.4% | 21 |
| 382d | DonaldMusk1 | 320-339 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,698 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 382d | DonaldMusk1 | 300-319 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | +$6 +0.6% | 20 |
| 382d | 0x265f…a448 | 300-319 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,568 | −$32 −2.1% | — |
| 382d | XZZD | 340-359 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,156 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 382d | DonaldMusk12 fills | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,186 | +$116 +1.4% | 20 |
| 382d |  Prexpect | 300-319 | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,375 | +$128 +9.3% | 23 |
| 382d | chocolate123 | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,155 | +$8 +0.7% | 20 |
| 382d | CoinMarketCap. | 300-319 | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $3,691 | +$528 +14% | 24 |
| 382d | XZZD | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,881 | +$11 +0.6% | 20 |
| 382d |  LinaBell🦊 | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,731 | +$18 +1.1% | 20 |
| 382d | bitcoinpaws | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,304 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 382d |  Armlet | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,095 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 382d | xbsuwrkfmdl37 | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 382d | Annica2 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,215 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 382d |  GuessyProphet | 380-399 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,761 | −$11 −0.6% | — |
| 382d | diseax | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,632 | −$16 −0.4% | — |
| 382d | diseax | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,644 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 382d | Annica2 fills | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,315 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 382d | japjapjap | 300-319 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,274 | +$445 +35% | 27 |
| 382d | P0xt | 280-299 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,107 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 382d | DonaldMusk12 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,268 | +$52 +0.6% | 20 |
| 382d | leiger | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,779 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 382d | Annica2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,508 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 382d | LinaBell🦊2 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,144 | +$36 +0.7% | 20 |
| 382d | Gustav4 | 280-299 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,231 | +$19 +1.6% | 20 |
| 382d | ginee | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,549 | +$5 +0.3% | 20 |
| 382d | crypt0vect0r | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,570 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 383d | Rogu2 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,921 | +$30 +0.1% | 20 |
| 383d | cryptovulp | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,507 | +$19 +0.4% | 20 |
| 383d | cipherpilot | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,974 | +$26 +1.3% | 20 |
| 383d | XZZD | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,069 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 383d | Adishon | 380-399 | BuyNo100¢ | $3,525 | +$18 +0.5% | 20 |
| 383d | nanamiya | 400-419 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,012 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 383d | nanamiya | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,013 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 383d | anondeltorro | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,310 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 383d | cipherpilot | 440-459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,935 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 383d | leiger | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,375 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 383d | Annica | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 383d | Annica | 260-279 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,862 | +$138 +7.4% | 21 |
| 383d |  imp | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,142 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 383d |  ElonSpam | 460-479 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,959 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 383d | ElonSpam | 480-499 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,314 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 384d | ElonSpam4 fills | 500+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $38,107 | +$43 +0.1% | 20 |
| 384d | scusi | 500+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 384d | glarity | 500+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 384d | hopetogohome | 220-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,934 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 384d |  Dumbeldor2003 | 260-279 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$160 +5.3% | 21 |
| 384d | astromage | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,671 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 384d | leiger | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,232 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 384d | cipherpilot2 fills | 220-239 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,916 | +$14 +0.2% | 20 |
| 384d | GuessyProphet | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,760 | +$12 +0.7% | 20 |
| 384d | ElonSpam | 200-219 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,695 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 384d | Old-Fashioned-Outset | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,518 | +$17 +1.1% | 20 |
| 384d | Annica | 340-359 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,178 | +$13 +1.1% | 20 |
OuchMyBalls9,944 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 30 12:00 PM ET to October 7, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 300-319 means the market gives it about 100%.