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Polymarket · CultureClosed

Elon Musk # tweets September 9 - September 16, 2025?

Open on Polymarket ↗

Leading: 240-259100% · +36 pts today
24h volume: $0
Total volume: $1.8M
Outcomes: 30
Ends: Sep 16, 2025

Odds over time

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Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	24h	1 week	Bid · Ask	24h volume	Ends
240-259	100%	+36 pts	+91 pts	>99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢)	—	ended
<20	0%	0 pts	—	— · <1¢	—	ended
20-39	0%	0 pts	—	— · <1¢	—	ended
40-59	0%	0 pts	—	— · <1¢	—	ended
60-79	0%	−1 pts	—	— · <1¢	—	ended
80-99	0%	0 pts	−50 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
100-119	0%	—	−10 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
120-139	0%	0 pts	−4 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
140-159	0%	−2 pts	−4 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
160-179	0%	−8 pts	−5 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
180-199	0%	−4 pts	−5 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
200-219	0%	−4 pts	−7 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
220-239	0%	−17 pts	−8 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
260-279	0%	−14 pts	−8 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
280-299	0%	−2 pts	−7 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
300-319	0%	−1 pts	−7 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
320-339	0%	−1 pts	−5 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
340-359	0%	—	−4 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
360-379	0%	—	−3 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
380-399	0%	—	−3 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
400-419	0%	—	−3 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
420-439	0%	—	−3 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
440-459	0%	—	−3 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
460-479	0%	—	−2 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
480-499	0%	—	−2 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
500-519	0%	—	−2 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
520-539	0%	—	−1 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
540-559	0%	—	−1 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
560-579	0%	—	−1 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended
580+	0%	—	−4 pts	— · <1¢	—	ended

Whale trades

$1,000 and up · latest

When	Trader	Outcome	Bet	Size	P&L now	Insider
402d	XZZD	340-359	SellNo>99¢	$1,298	−$1 −0.1%	—
402d	Elonurmom	240-259	SellYes>99¢	$1,109	−$1 −0.1%	—
402d	Prexpect	260-279	BuyNo>99¢	$1,288	+$1 +0.1%	20
402d	DonaldMusk12 fills	260-279	BuyNo>99¢	$4,147	+$15 +0.4%	20
402d	Prexpect	240-259	BuyYes>99¢	$1,601	+$2 +0.1%	20
402d	DonaldMusk1	240-259	BuyYes>99¢	$1,924	+$6 +0.3%	20
402d	Gustav4	240-259	BuyYes99¢ → 100¢	$1,029	+$10 +1.0%	20
402d	Gustav4	260-279	BuyNo99¢ → 100¢	$1,079	+$11 +1.0%	20
402d	affs207912 fills	240-259	BuyYes84¢ → 100¢	$3,053	+$589 +19%	24
402d	Annica	240-259	BuyYes67¢ → 100¢	$1,013	+$499 +49%	30
402d	DonaldMusk1	240-259	SellYes81¢ → 100¢	$1,591	−$373 −23%	—
403d	Annica	240-259	SellYes92¢ → 100¢	$1,143	−$98 −8.6%	—
403d	XZZD	280-299	BuyNo99¢ → 100¢	$1,485	+$15 +1.0%	20
403d	spicytuna	240-259	BuyYes84¢ → 100¢	$1,578	+$303 +19%	24
403d	ElonSpam2 fills	320-339	BuyNo>99¢	$19,123	+$24 +0.1%	20
403d	MariusK	320-339	SellNo99¢ → 100¢	$1,543	−$17 −1.1%	—
403d	ElonSpam	340-359	BuyNo>99¢	$9,806	+$10 +0.1%	20
403d	Eviler	200-219	SellNo>99¢	$2,560	−$5 −0.2%	—
403d	0x97cc…bbbf	200-219	BuyNo>99¢	$5,994	+$6 +0.1%	20
404d	chocolate123	200-219	BuyNo>99¢	$1,808	+$5 +0.3%	20
404d	Eviler	200-219	BuyNo>99¢	$2,556	+$10 +0.4%	20
404d	ElonSpam2 fills	200-219	BuyNo100¢	$4,240	+$21 +0.5%	20
404d	zeus762 fills	200-219	BuyNo96¢ → 100¢	$11,000	+$494 +4.5%	20
404d	imp	200-219	BuyNo99¢ → 100¢	$1,976	+$24 +1.2%	20
404d	Maroni	180-199	BuyNo>99¢	$2,558	+$3 +0.1%	20
404d	Eviler	180-199	BuyNo>99¢	$2,553	+$3 +0.1%	20
404d	MariusK	320-339	BuyNo99¢ → 100¢	$1,538	+$22 +1.4%	20
404d	Funat	180-199	BuyNo100¢	$1,095	+$6 +0.5%	20
404d	Pakedu	180-199	BuyNo100¢	$1,103	+$6 +0.5%	20
404d	Shiball	180-199	BuyNo100¢	$1,105	+$6 +0.5%	20
404d	Carrys22	180-199	BuyNo100¢	$1,120	+$6 +0.5%	20
404d	Luakpai	180-199	BuyNo100¢	$1,062	+$5 +0.5%	20
404d	Jinxp	180-199	BuyNo100¢	$1,170	+$6 +0.5%	20
404d	Jamechar	180-199	BuyNo100¢	$1,187	+$6 +0.5%	20
404d	Trumppper	180-199	BuyNo100¢	$1,245	+$6 +0.5%	20
404d	Samchj	180-199	BuyNo100¢	$1,239	+$6 +0.5%	20
404d	Annica	180-199	BuyNo100¢	$9,950	+$50 +0.5%	20
404d	pablos2-113	180-199	BuyNo100¢	$1,178	+$6 +0.5%	20
404d	imp2 fills	180-199	BuyNo99¢ → 100¢	$4,328	+$51 +1.2%	20
404d	stauffen	280-299	BuyNo93¢ → 100¢	$2,554	+$196 +7.7%	21
405d	XZZD	300-319	BuyNo98¢ → 100¢	$1,681	+$26 +1.6%	20
405d	ElonSpam2 fills	160-179	BuyNo>99¢	$31,601	+$38 +0.1%	20
405d	ElonSpam2 fills	140-159	BuyNo>99¢	$5,812	+$10 +0.2%	20
405d	0x97cc…bbbf	140-159	BuyNo>99¢	$4,995	+$5 +0.1%	20
405d	imp	160-179	BuyNo94¢ → 100¢	$1,220	+$81 +6.6%	21
405d	0x97cc…bbbf	120-139	BuyNo>99¢	$3,563	+$7 +0.2%	20
405d	ElonSpam	400-419	BuyNo>99¢	$10,445	+$10 +0.1%	20
406d	Poory	120-139	BuyNo>99¢	$2,994	+$6 +0.2%	20
406d	Annica3 fills	400-419	BuyNo99¢ → 100¢	$8,672	+$70 +0.8%	20
406d	Annica3 fills	420-439	BuyNo99¢ → 100¢	$8,672	+$70 +0.8%	20
407d	Annica2 fills	60-79	BuyNo>99¢	$5,393	+$5 +0.1%	20
408d	XZZD	340-359	BuyNo97¢ → 100¢	$1,259	+$40 +3.2%	20
408d	Annica	100-119	BuyNo>99¢	$2,997	+$3 +0.1%	20
412d	Annica	80-99	BuyNo>99¢	$1,333	+$1 +0.1%	20
412d	Annica	20-39	BuyNo>99¢	$1,333	+$1 +0.1%	20
412d	Annica	<20	BuyNo>99¢	$1,513	+$2 +0.1%	20

Biggest holders: 240-259 · Yes

Quizzical-Cashew1 shares

Biggest holders: 240-259 · No

0xa5ef…2966101,387 shares
CavaSoTasty2,050 shares
OuchMyBalls1,000 shares
BGN728 shares
WetCheetos515 shares
selmonbhoi477 shares
affs20791341 shares
kaloi312318 shares

How this market settles

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 9 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 240-259 means the market gives it about 100%.