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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 100% | +21 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $20M | 100% | +1 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $50M | 100% | +2 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $200M | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $300M | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 274d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,383 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 274d |  bjbjs | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,600 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 274d |  leleko2k2 fills | $200M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,099 | +$98 +1.2% | 2 |
| 275d |  therealonestepahead | $100M | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,123 | +$24 +2.1% | 2 |
| 275d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,380 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 275d | zxiddio | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,317 | +$5 +0.4% | 2 |
| 275d | zxiddio | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,020 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 275d | ysuidust | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,213 | +$2 +0.2% | 2 |
| 275d | ysuidust | $20M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,564 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 275d |  EleveResearch | $20M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,003 | +$2 +0.2% | 2 |
| 275d | yiselie | $200M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,466 | +$27 +1.8% | 2 |
| 275d |  gleb7 | $200M | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$32 +2.6% | 2 |
| 275d | JohnWitcher | $100M | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,182 | +$140 +6.4% | 2 |
| 275d |  massimoxbt | $100M | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $4,288 | +$880 +21% | 2 |
| 276d | mustery | $20M | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,356 | +$27 +2.0% | 2 |
| 276d | 0x15ce9A512F0d4475ABb6DbA71ae702E2Dc1703 | $20M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,011 | +$69 +3.4% | 2 |
| 276d |  mewmew1 | $20M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,062 | +$39 +3.6% | 2 |
| 276d |  Kepochnik | $100M | BuyNo76¢ → 0¢ | $1,372 | −$1,372 −100% | 2 |
| 276d | alphatips.Channel | $50M | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,115 | +$484 +43% | 2 |
| 276d |  Lai.Cai | $100M | BuyNo82¢ → 0¢ | $2,863 | −$2,863 −100% | 2 |
Ivanfe4 shares
MJ-SOL183 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Elsa's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Elsa (https://x.com/HeyElsaAI) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $100M means the market gives it about 100%.