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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| By February 22, 2022? | 4% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| By May 1, 2022? | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| By June 1, 2022? | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| By August 1, 2022? | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| By July 1, 2022? | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| By September 1, 2022? | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| By January 1, 2023? | >99% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| By November 1, 2022? | >99% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| By September 16, 2022? | >99% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| By October 1, 2022? | >99% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
No trades of $1,000 or more lately.
This is a market group on when "The Merge" will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675), transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake. Note that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 4¢ for By February 22, 2022? means the market gives it about 4%.