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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 100% | +4 pts | +29 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $200M | 100% | +16 pts | +49 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $500M | 0% | −4 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $1B | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $400M | 0% | −10 pts | −43 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $300M | 0% | −35 pts | −44 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $600M | 0% | −1 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $700M | 0% | −1 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $900M | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $800M | 0% | 0 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 274d | mamai | $200M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,034 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 274d |  Burnmoneyuser | $100M | SellYes>99¢ | $2,999 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 274d |  Infringe | $100M | SellYes>99¢ | $3,002 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 274d | Infringe3 fills | $200M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,978 | +$176 +2.9% | 20 |
| 274d |  isunou2 fills | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,203 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 274d | roflingbets | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,497 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 274d |  CluelessEyes | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,597 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d |  youngsoros | $200M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,909 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 274d | CluelessEyes | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,370 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d | CluelessEyes | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,692 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d | stealer | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,003 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d | Burnmoneyuser3 fills | $100M | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,940 | +$156 +2.2% | 20 |
| 274d | CluelessEyes | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,220 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d | Infringe | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d |  therealonestepahead | $500M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,156 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 274d | ishakeyourbets | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,490 | +$11 +0.3% | 20 |
| 274d | CluelessEyes | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,466 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d | roflingbets | $100M | BuyYes100¢ | $2,088 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
| 274d | omegonx | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,273 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d |  branson69 | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,118 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 274d | DM76222 fills | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,217 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 274d | DM7622 | $400M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,632 | +$18 +1.1% | 20 |
| 274d | DM76222 fills | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,173 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
| 274d | therealonestepahead | $500M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,146 | +$12 +1.0% | 20 |
| 274d |  partner | $900M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,003 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 274d |  TAMALIE | $900M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,417 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 274d | 1f656we | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,731 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 274d | 1f656we | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,195 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 274d | 75senu | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,401 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 274d | topsonrock2 fills | $600M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,505 | +$22 +0.6% | 20 |
| 274d | asketdao | $400M | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$99 +9.9% | 20 |
| 275d | loselose | $100M | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,151 | −$72 −6.3% | — |
| 275d | travaler | $100M | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,645 | −$65 −4.0% | — |
| 275d | JasonOu2024 | $100M | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | −$40 −4.0% | — |
| 275d | Pavelevel | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,400 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 275d | 0x15ce9A512F0d4475ABb6DbA71ae702E2Dc1703 | $100M | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,418 | +$55 +3.9% | 20 |
| 275d | mb63amg | $100M | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,387 | +$60 +4.3% | 20 |
| 277d | kevin-airdrop | $500M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,034 | +$22 +2.1% | 20 |
barsik326 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of ETHGAS's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If ETHGAS (https://x.com/ETHGasOfficial) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $100M means the market gives it about 100%.