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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Alonso | 50% | −1 pts | +2 pts | 50¢ · 51¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Alexander Albon | 50% | −3 pts | +1 pts | 49¢ · 50¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Sergio Perez | 50% | +2 pts | +1 pts | 49¢ · 51¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| Valtteri Bottas | 50% | −4 pts | −2 pts | 49¢ · 50¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Pierre Gasly | 50% | −2 pts | −1 pts | 49¢ · 50¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 50% | +2 pts | −1 pts | 49¢ · 50¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Franco Colapinto | 50% | +2 pts | −2 pts | 49¢ · 51¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| George Russell | 50% | −1 pts | +1 pts | 49¢ · 51¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| Liam Lawson | 50% | — | −1 pts | 50¢ · 51¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Esteban Ocon | 50% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 49¢ · 51¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | 50% | −2 pts | −2 pts | 49¢ · 50¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 50% | +1 pts | — | 50¢ · 51¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Lewis Hamilton | 50% | +1 pts | −1 pts | 50¢ · 51¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Isack Hadjar | 50% | −1 pts | +1 pts | 50¢ · 51¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Arvid Lindblad | 50% | −2 pts | −1 pts | 50¢ · 51¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Oliver Bearman | 50% | −1 pts | +1 pts | 50¢ · 51¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 50% | −1 pts | — | 49¢ · 51¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| Oscar Piastri | 50% | — | −1 pts | 50¢ · 51¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Charles Leclerc | 50% | −1 pts | +1 pts | 49¢ · 51¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| Lando Norris | 50% | — | — | 49¢ · 51¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| Max Verstappen | 50% | — | — | 49¢ · 51¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200d |  Freedom-BY | Alexander Albon | BuyNo70¢ → 50¢ | $1,400 | −$400 −29% | 4 |
| 216d | Tonzie | Fernando Alonso | SellNo51¢ → 50¢ | $1,195 | +$35 +2.9% | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed driver finishes within the top three positions in the official "Final Classification" for the F1 Bahrain Grand Prix, scheduled for Apr 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The "Final Classification" is published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. It is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the "Final Classification" will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market. If the Bahrain Grand Prix is postponed, this market will remain open until the event has been completed. If the Bahrain Grand Prix is permanently canceled, this market will resolve 50-50.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 50¢ for Fernando Alonso means the market gives it about 50%.