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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ocon | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Oscar Piastri | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Charles Leclerc | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| George Russell | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Lewis Hamilton | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Arvid Lindblad | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Franco Colapinto | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Liam Lawson | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Max Verstappen | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Alexander Albon | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Pierre Gasly | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Lando Norris | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Fernando Alonso | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Sergio Perez | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Valtteri Bottas | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Oliver Bearman | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Isack Hadjar | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 209d |  laserjohnny | Andrea Kimi Antonelli | SellYes>99¢ | $3,101 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 209d | shcc | Charles Leclerc | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,349 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 209d | 7ViziCapitale | Lewis Hamilton | SellNo>99¢ | $1,094 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 209d | nickthechopper | George Russell | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,111 | +$169 +15% | 5 |
| 209d | conichima | Oscar Piastri | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,537 | +$123 +8.0% | 4 |
| 209d | Arid-Hurdle | Valtteri Bottas | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,320 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 209d |  chessplayer | Pierre Gasly | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,650 | +$6 +0.3% | 4 |
| 209d | 08AF | George Russell | BuyYes92¢ → 0¢ | $1,169 | −$1,169 −100% | 4 |
| 209d | 08AF | Andrea Kimi Antonelli | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,253 | +$120 +9.5% | 4 |
| 209d | WINAMAX.FR | Max Verstappen | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,750 | +$250 +5.3% | 4 |
| 209d | godblesspol | Alexander Albon | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,800 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 209d | turnaroundtime | Sergio Perez | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 209d | turnaroundtime | Fernando Alonso | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 211d | chessplayer | Franco Colapinto | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,382 | +$9 +0.6% | 4 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed driver finishes within the top three positions in the official "Final Classification" for the F1 Japanese Grand Prix, scheduled for Mar 29, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The "Final Classification" is published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. It is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the "Final Classification" will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market. If the Japanese Grand Prix is postponed, this market will remain open until the event has been completed. If the Japanese Grand Prix is permanently canceled, this market will resolve 50-50.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Esteban Ocon means the market gives it about 0%.