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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | 38% | −3 pts | +5 pts | 37¢ · 39¢ (2¢) | $11.9K | in 7d |
| Charles Leclerc | 29% | +13 pts | +6 pts | 28¢ · 30¢ (2¢) | $9.01K | in 7d |
| Lewis Hamilton | 17% | +7 pts | −6 pts | 17¢ · 17¢ (<1¢) | $5.03K | in 7d |
| Kimi Antonelli | 13% | −5 pts | −11 pts | 11¢ · 14¢ (3¢) | $7.83K | in 7d |
| George Russell | 4% | −2 pts | −20 pts | 2¢ · 5¢ (3¢) | $4.69K | in 7d |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 4% | −11 pts | −16 pts | — · 7¢ | — | in 7d |
| Lando Norris | 3% | −6 pts | −21 pts | 2¢ · 4¢ (2¢) | $2.09K | in 7d |
| Oscar Piastri | 1% | −1 pts | −14 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $3.53K | in 7d |
| Fernando Alonso | 1% | 0 pts | −18 pts | — · 2¢ | $500 | in 7d |
| Alexander Albon | 1% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · 2¢ | — | in 7d |
| Sergio Perez | 1% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · 2¢ | — | in 7d |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 1% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · 2¢ | — | in 7d |
| Valtteri Bottas | 1% | 0 pts | −20 pts | — · 2¢ | — | in 7d |
| Arvid Lindblad | 1% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · 2¢ | — | in 7d |
| Isack Hadjar | 1% | 0 pts | −5 pts | <1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $1.71K | in 7d |
| Liam Lawson | 1% | 0 pts | −14 pts | — · 2¢ | — | in 7d |
| Pierre Gasly | 1% | −1 pts | −15 pts | — · 2¢ | — | in 7d |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 1% | −1 pts | −22 pts | — · 1¢ | $156 | in 7d |
| Esteban Ocon | 1% | −1 pts | −16 pts | — · 1¢ | $156 | in 7d |
| Franco Colapinto | 1% | −1 pts | −15 pts | — · 1¢ | $156 | in 7d |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | 1% | −1 pts | −15 pts | — · 1¢ | $156 | in 7d |
| Oliver Bearman | 1% | −1 pts | −15 pts | — · 1¢ | $156 | in 7d |
| Lance Stroll | 1% | −1 pts | −15 pts | — · 1¢ | $156 | in 7d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33m |  2Week1Shower | Kimi Antonelli | BuyNo86¢ → 88¢ | $1,080 | +$19 +1.7% | 9 |
| 2h | OrwellFactory | Max Verstappen | BuyNo75¢ → 62¢ | $1,310 | −$223 −17% | 11 |
| 2h |  Nooserac | Kimi Antonelli | BuyNo79¢ → 88¢ | $1,245 | +$134 +11% | 13 |
AvocadosFromMexico526 shares2Week1Shower1,536 shares
probability517 sharesThis is a polymarket on the driver who achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix, scheduled for Oct 24, 2026. If the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Oct 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid. For example, if a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that driver. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 38¢ for Max Verstappen means the market gives it about 38%.