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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Farley | 100% | +14 pts | +25 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Michelle Milthorpe | 0% | −15 pts | −25 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Rebecca Scriven | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Helen Dalton | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Raissa Butkowski | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Person C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person L | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person M | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person N | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person O | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person P | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person Q | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person R | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person S | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person T | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person U | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person V | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person W | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person X | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person Y | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person Z | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 167d | bignightcatcat | David Farley | SellYes>99¢ | $2,009 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 167d | Merry-Straw | David Farley | SellYes>99¢ | $1,117 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 167d |  probability2 fills | David Farley | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,790 | +$7 +0.3% | 10 |
| 167d | marketbear6165 | Michelle Milthorpe | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,165 | −$8 −0.7% | — |
| 167d | Incomplete-Reorganisation | David Farley | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,196 | −$7 −0.6% | — |
| 167d | probability2 fills | Michelle Milthorpe | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,636 | +$10 +0.2% | 10 |
| 167d |  seal72 fills | David Farley | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,215 | +$157 +7.1% | 10 |
| 167d | marketbear6165 | Michelle Milthorpe | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$73 +6.7% | 10 |
| 167d | Incomplete-Reorganisation | David Farley | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$102 +9.3% | 10 |
| 167d | TomSargent2 fills | David Farley | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $7,418 | +$549 +7.4% | 12 |
| 167d | Unwelcome-Wrap2 fills | Rebecca Scriven | BuyNo>99¢ | $150,720 | +$151 +0.1% | 10 |
| 168d | btay85 | David Farley | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $2,973 | +$480 +16% | 14 |
| 168d | probability3 fills | Helen Dalton | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,101 | +$14 +0.2% | 10 |
| 168d | i18z | Raissa Butkowski | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,145 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 168d | i18z | Helen Dalton | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,145 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 168d | i18z | Rebecca Scriven | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,145 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 168d |  scottilicious | David Farley | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $4,066 | +$871 +21% | 13 |
| 171d | PepsiWarrior | David Farley | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$265 +26% | 11 |
| 196d | jgdbvr | Michelle Milthorpe | BuyYes84¢ → 0¢ | $1,283 | −$1,283 −100% | 10 |
| 197d | FinallyGotItWorking | Michelle Milthorpe | BuyYes79¢ → 0¢ | $3,968 | −$3,968 −100% | 10 |
| 247d | messiRona | Rebecca Scriven | SellNo8¢ → 100¢ | $3,200 | −$36,800 −1150% | — |
| 247d | messiRona | Rebecca Scriven | BuyNo50¢ → 100¢ | $20,000 | +$20,000 +100% | 10 |
Alexsandroalves1 sharesA by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for David Farley means the market gives it about 100%.