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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +32 pts | +35 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 406d |  SPIT | France debt downgrade by December 31? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,998 | +$20 +1.0% | 4 |
| 406d |  theta-thunberg | France debt downgrade by December 31? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,750 | +$18 +1.1% | 4 |
| 406d |  nicoco89 | France debt downgrade by December 31? | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,316 | +$237 +18% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between September 3, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.