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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDU/CSU >30% | 100% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| AfD >16% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| SPD >15% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| Grune >14% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 860d |  BuckMySalls2 fills | CDU/CSU >30% | BuyYes58¢ → 100¢ | $2,321 | +$1,652 +71% | 10 |
| 860d | goingsocial | CDU/CSU >30% | BuyNo69¢ → 0¢ | $3,760 | −$3,760 −100% | 10 |
| 860d | BuckMySalls | Grune >14% | BuyYes37¢ → 0¢ | $1,036 | −$1,036 −100% | 10 |
| 860d | lava-lava | Grune >14% | BuyYes39¢ → 0¢ | $1,143 | −$1,143 −100% | 10 |
| 870d | Kapii | Grune >14% | BuyYes50¢ → 0¢ | $1,230 | −$1,230 −100% | 10 |
| 870d | Loyalty-Crash | Grune >14% | BuyNo50¢ → 100¢ | $4,140 | +$4,140 +100% | 10 |
| 880d | Trinity | Grune >14% | SellYes50¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | +$1,000 +100% | — |
| 882d |  VibesGreaterRules | Grune >14% | BuyNo49¢ → 100¢ | $1,655 | +$1,743 +105% | 10 |
| 883d | lava-lava | Grune >14% | BuyNo44¢ → 100¢ | $1,760 | +$2,240 +127% | 11 |
| 883d | lava-lava | CDU/CSU >30% | BuyYes50¢ → 100¢ | $2,075 | +$2,075 +100% | 10 |
asd
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for CDU/CSU >30% means the market gives it about 100%.