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Polymarket · EconomyClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50%+ | 0% | −10 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 45%+ | 100% | +21 pts | +21 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 40%+ | 100% | +6 pts | +7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 55%+ | 0% | −3 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60%+ | 0% | −2 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 196d |  DiamondHands11 | 45%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,958 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 196d |  The-Joker | 40%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,787 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 196d |  Contentious-Dinnerdate | 45%+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,773 | +$18 +1.0% | 4 |
| 245d | AmandaFrederick3937 | 60%+ | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,226 | +$200 +16% | 4 |
| 249d | Instructive-FrictionNew account | 50%+ | BuyYes70¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 16 |
| 260d | laylahashish | 55%+ | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | −$179 −18% | — |
| 260d | laylahashish | 55%+ | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,026 | +$167 +16% | 4 |
MASAMUNE832 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini 3 model with a score of at least the specified score by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for 50%+ means the market gives it about 0%.