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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Goodwin - Reform | 100% | +5 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Amanda Gardner – Green Party | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Zia Yusuf – Reform UK | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Lee Moffitt – Reform UK | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jonathan Gullis – Reform UK | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Zack Polanski – Green Party | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Hannah Spencer - Green Party | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Angeliki Stogia - Labour | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jackie Pearcy - Lib Dems | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Bev Craig - Labour | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Andy Burnham - Labour | 0% | +1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate L | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 239d | Rigid-BassinetNew account | Angeliki Stogia - Labour | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,760 | +$40 +1.5% | 11 |
| 239d | Rigid-BassinetNew account | Matt Goodwin - Reform | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,514 | +$72 +2.1% | 11 |
gopfan21,648 shares
bjprolo100 sharesThe Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election is currently scheduled for February 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election in Greater Manchester. In the case of an exact tie in valid votes received, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If the election results are not clear by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Any change in party affiliation will not affect the resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Manchester City Council (https://www.manchester.gov.uk/elections).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Matt Goodwin - Reform means the market gives it about 100%.