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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 0% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 323d |  JuliusNakamoto | December 31 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,373 | −$24 −1.8% | — |
| 324d | JuliusNakamoto | December 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,851 | +$35 +1.9% | 4 |
| 327d |  noreasapa | November 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,864 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if GPT-5 achieves a score of 70% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 0%.