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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 100% | 0 pts | +10 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 31 | 100% | 0 pts | +5 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 465d | glarity | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,200 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 465d | glarity2 fills | September 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,682 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 465d | aviato | September 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 465d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae1622 fills | September 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,581 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 465d |  Ban4ik2 fills | September 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,673 | −$24 −0.4% | — |
| 465d | 0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162 | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,003 | +$3 +0.3% | 20 |
| 465d | ourdemocracy2 | December 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,755 | −$10 −0.6% | — |
| 465d | Ban4ik2 fills | September 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,573 | +$14 +0.3% | 20 |
| 467d | Xgs2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,001 | +$19 +0.6% | 20 |
| 471d |  Paeniscus. | December 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,308 | +$48 +2.1% | 20 |
| 477d |  Funfzig | December 31 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $3,024 | +$299 +9.9% | 20 |
| 478d | MagicTheGreat | September 30 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $4,700 | +$917 +20% | 20 |
| 502d | Novera | September 30 | SellNo42¢ → 0¢ | $13,823 | +$13,823 +100% | — |
| 502d | Trevio | September 30 | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $19,419 | +$13,494 +69% | 20 |
BabyYoda12100 shares
Kaedweni24 shares
Losserto4 sharesThis is a market group over by what date Grok 4 will be released.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for September 30 means the market gives it about 100%.