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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 100% | 0 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Project Hail Mary | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Hoppers | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| The Drama | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| A Great Awakening | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Movie A | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Movie K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 193d | T.hanks | The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,289 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 194d | The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | SellYes>99¢ | $1,309 | −$1 −0.1% | — | |
| 200d | tphhh2 fills | The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,849 | +$14 +0.2% | 4 |
| 201d | The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,446 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 204d | The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 204d | The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,309 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 | |
| 205d | The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,141 | +$49 +0.6% | 4 | |
| 207d | The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,980 | +$20 +1.0% | 4 |
This market will resolve according to the film which grosses the most domestically in theaters for the 3 day weekend of April 3 - 5. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 3 - 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If more than one movie reports the same gross for the 3-day weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. If no movie plays in theaters during the specified weekend, this market will resolve to "Other".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie means the market gives it about 100%.