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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | +74 pts | +36 pts | 99¢ · >99¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| March 6 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 15 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 202d | ddolsw123r | April 15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,494 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 202d | generalVR2 fills | April 15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,390 | +$19 +0.8% | 20 |
| 202d | 0x4135…e462 | April 15 | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $6,617 | −$833 −13% | — |
| 202d | yougotme3 fills | April 15 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,582 | +$82 +1.8% | 20 |
| 202d | Shmuela | April 15 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,895 | −$105 −3.6% | — |
| 202d | Neon-Gargoyle3 fills | April 15 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,590 | +$99 +2.2% | 20 |
| 202d | Cautious-Deadline | April 15 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,318 | −$143 −4.3% | — |
| 202d | 888-168-888 | April 15 | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,545 | −$69 −4.5% | — |
| 202d |  CaptainCoinflip6 fills | April 15 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $10,049 | +$610 +6.1% | 20 |
| 202d | Tomer12 | April 15 | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,355 | −$451 −33% | — |
| 202d |  MisTKy2 fills | April 15 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $3,009 | +$295 +9.8% | 20 |
| 202d |  0x039478r87r8yr3f7hd | April 15 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,198 | +$188 +16% | 20 |
| 202d | ALLOWMETOSHOWU1 | April 15 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $3,433 | +$621 +18% | 20 |
| 202d | cashy3 fills | April 15 | BuyYes57¢ → 100¢ | $4,238 | +$3,179 +75% | 20 |
| 202d |  tourists | April 15 | BuyYes63¢ → 100¢ | $1,129 | +$663 +59% | 20 |
| 202d |  A110 | April 15 | BuyYes44¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$1,377 +125% | 20 |
| 203d | Thin-Print4 fills | April 15 | BuyNo77¢ → 0¢ | $5,699 | −$5,699 −100% | 20 |
| 203d |  ZhangMuZhi..2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,868 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 203d | zxc368 | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 203d | ddolsw123r | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 203d | JusDuC | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,798 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 203d | Flimsy-FibreNew account | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,000 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 203d |  PredictionYogi | March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $23,031 | +$23 +0.1% | 20 |
| 203d | Thin-Print14 fills | March 31 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $33,882 | +$3,795 +11% | 20 |
| 204d | Faint-Caravan | April 15 | BuyYes62¢ → 100¢ | $1,711 | +$1,062 +62% | 20 |
| 205d | CaptainCoinflip2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,262 | +$34 +0.8% | 20 |
| 205d | Wilted-Opportunity | March 31 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,170 | −$45 −3.8% | — |
| 206d | M2sx92kljs422 fills | April 15 | BuyNo71¢ → 0¢ | $4,564 | −$4,564 −100% | 20 |
| 206d | okada | March 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,356 | −$26 −1.1% | — |
| 206d | GolemPrague | March 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,180 | −$11 −0.9% | — |
| 206d |  TheSwedishWolf | April 15 | BuyNo75¢ → 0¢ | $1,025 | −$1,025 −100% | 20 |
| 206d | Danieljay2 fills | April 15 | BuyNo74¢ → 0¢ | $5,745 | −$5,745 −100% | 20 |
| 206d | Cautious-Deadline | April 15 | BuyYes31¢ → 100¢ | $1,080 | +$2,382 +221% | 20 |
| 207d | M2sx92kljs424 fills | March 31 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $5,788 | +$685 +12% | 22 |
| 207d | 0x4135…e462 | April 15 | BuyYes54¢ → 100¢ | $1,061 | +$902 +85% | 20 |
| 207d | jayames1990 | April 15 | BuyNo63¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 20 |
| 207d |  BigYahuu | March 31 | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $2,244 | −$455 −20% | — |
| 208d | baybug | March 31 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$165 +14% | 23 |
| 208d | okada | March 31 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,011 | +$175 +17% | 22 |
| 208d | Nanoban | March 31 | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,052 | −$200 −19% | — |
| 209d | Tart-BehaviorNew account | March 31 | BuyYes26¢ → 0¢ | $1,225 | −$1,225 −100% | 38 |
| 209d | A110 | March 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$503 +25% | 23 |
| 209d | Uneven-Interpreter | March 31 | SellYes24¢ → 0¢ | $1,602 | +$1,602 +100% | — |
| 209d | Portly-Kill | March 31 | BuyNo74¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$532 +35% | 30 |
| 209d | 0x06d00e6307b288427c8e32e146b602e1a58a254f | March 31 | SellNo66¢ → 100¢ | $1,794 | −$933 −52% | — |
| 209d | idfinsider0228 | March 31 | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $1,172 | +$542 +46% | 25 |
| 209d | ThaDude | March 31 | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $3,058 | +$1,146 +37% | 25 |
| 209d | Robertro1232 fills | March 31 | BuyYes33¢ → 0¢ | $3,000 | −$3,000 −100% | 28 |
| 209d | 0x06d00e6307b288427c8e32e146b602e1a58a254f | March 31 | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,900 | +$827 +44% | 25 |
| 209d | Better-Dead | March 31 | SellNo65¢ → 100¢ | $2,837 | −$1,507 −53% | — |
| 209d | Shimshon41 | April 15 | BuyYes64¢ → 100¢ | $2,922 | +$1,644 +56% | 25 |
| 209d |  JeffFruitFa | March 31 | SellNo64¢ → 100¢ | $2,355 | −$1,320 −56% | — |
| 209d | iCo | April 15 | BuyYes55¢ → 100¢ | $1,119 | +$908 +81% | 25 |
| 209d | Skinny-Class | April 15 | BuyNo56¢ → 0¢ | $1,116 | −$1,116 −100% | 25 |
| 210d | Feisty-Stencil | March 31 | BuyYes36¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 29 |
| 210d | RamseyDoll | March 31 | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,362 | +$461 +34% | 24 |
| 210d |  paddaa | April 15 | BuyNo68¢ → 0¢ | $1,300 | −$1,300 −100% | 22 |
| 210d | oalsuwat | March 31 | BuyYes26¢ → 0¢ | $1,160 | −$1,160 −100% | 23 |
| 210d | Thanks4TheMoney | March 31 | BuyYes24¢ → 0¢ | $1,955 | −$1,955 −100% | 25 |
| 210d | Lovable-ForumNew account | March 31 | BuyYes18¢ → 0¢ | $1,014 | −$1,014 −100% | 37 |
AnnabelleNoirBackend600 shares
OMRYNIDAM575 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Houthis initiate a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Houthi forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for April 15 means the market gives it about 100%.