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Polymarket · ClimateClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-50k | 100% | +3 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 30-40k | 0% | −6 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 50-60k | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-70k | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 70-80k | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80k+ | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| <30k | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 649d | MakerOne | 60-70k | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,839 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 649d | MakerOne | 50-60k | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,220 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 649d |  Slowroasted | 70-80k | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,870 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 649d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly | 70-80k | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,038 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 649d | ExhaustedBoyBilly | 60-70k | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,392 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 650d | SeeAndHear | 40-50k | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | +$7 +0.7% | 4 |
| 650d |  BeneGesseritVoice | 30-40k | SellNo>99¢ | $1,199 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 650d | BeneGesseritVoice | 30-40k | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 650d | MakerOne | 40-50k | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,005 | +$31 +3.1% | 5 |
| 650d |  FrancisSP8 | 30-40k | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,286 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 650d | Pel | 50-60k | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,247 | +$74 +6.0% | 6 |
| 650d |  Alwayswinpls | 80k+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,062 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 651d |  KimJonEn2 fills | 70-80k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,341 | +$52 +0.7% | 4 |
| 651d | KimJonEn | 80k+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,944 | +$56 +1.4% | 4 |
| 651d | KimJonEn | 60-70k | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,115 | +$82 +2.6% | 4 |
| 651d | MPGA | 40-50k | BuyNo47¢ → 0¢ | $1,880 | −$1,880 −100% | 9 |
| 651d | Slowroasted | 80k+ | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,073 | +$138 +4.5% | 5 |
| 652d |  Dropper | <30k | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,731 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
This is a market on estimating the total acres that will be burned by wildfires in Los Angeles by Sunday.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-50k means the market gives it about 100%.