Polymarket · OtherClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | >99% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
No trades of $1,000 or more lately.
This is a scalar market on the number of confirmed coronavirus cases there will be at the end of 2020 in the United States, according to https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html. The lower bound for this market is 9 million and the upper bound is 15 million - you can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short share price corresponds with number of confirmed cases. The market will be settled according to https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html at roughly 12am EST on January 1st, 2021. Long and Short shares will settle proportional to the final value, in the case of the final value being between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Share is capped at $1. Refer to calculator. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: >99¢ for Yes means the market gives it about >99%.