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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 140-159 | 68% | 0 pts | −10 pts | 59¢ · 78¢ (20¢) | $25.5 | in 69d |
| 120-139 | 9% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 6¢ · 11¢ (5¢) | $20 | in 69d |
| 180-199 | 6% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 4¢ · 7¢ (3¢) | $20 | in 69d |
| 200 or more | 3% | −1 pts | +1 pts | 2¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | $100 | in 69d |
| 160-179 | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 3¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d | shcc | Will SpaceX have between 100-119 launches in 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,580 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 193d | 38920 | 200 or more | BuyNo86¢ → 97¢ | $1,542 | +$196 +13% | 29 |
| 196d | DarrylMitchell2640 | 160-179 | BuyNo65¢ → 98¢ | $1,118 | +$564 +50% | 20 |
| 197d | WilliamLawrence4766 | 200 or more | BuyNo89¢ → 97¢ | $1,438 | +$128 +8.9% | 27 |
| 199d | AlexanderDavis4886 | 140-159 | BuyNo70¢ → 32¢ | $1,049 | −$574 −55% | 40 |
| 199d | AmandaDavis4687 | 160-179 | BuyNo69¢ → 98¢ | $1,731 | +$722 +42% | 20 |
Gr4pefruit7000240 shares
tja338 shares
2B9S200 shares
Gohst79 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 68¢ for 140-159 means the market gives it about 68%.