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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 350k–375k | 100% | +1 pts | −1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <350k | 0% | −1 pts | +5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 375k–400k | 0% | −2 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400k–425k | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 425k–450k | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 450k–475k | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 475k–500k | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500k+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 205d | RogerKint | <350k | SellNo>99¢ | $1,041 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 205d | Leading-Clay | 350k–375k | SellYes>99¢ | $1,107 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 205d |  Ahpo | 400k–425k | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,991 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 205d |  DiamondHands11 | 350k–375k | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,841 | +$49 +1.0% | 4 |
| 205d | Cashdagger | <350k | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,012 | −$30 −1.0% | — |
| 206d | ears | 400k–425k | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,745 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 208d | Cashdagger | 350k–375k | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$318 +32% | 10 |
| 214d | DianaStone8191 | 375k–400k | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,222 | +$142 +12% | 4 |
| 223d | Candid-Sermon | 450k–475k | SellNo>99¢ | $2,419 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 225d | BridgeLake2 fills | <350k | BuyYes55¢ → 0¢ | $3,011 | −$3,011 −100% | 4 |
| 227d | 76V76v4vg74VG77 | 425k–450k | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,512 | −$11 −0.7% | — |
| 227d | N44N4NnBb44VB4bn | 425k–450k | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,536 | −$11 −0.7% | — |
| 227d | YRD65E564e54WS5e68 | 425k–450k | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,539 | −$11 −0.7% | — |
| 227d | 76V76v4vg74VG77 | 425k–450k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,512 | +$11 +0.7% | 4 |
| 227d | N44N4NnBb44VB4bn | 425k–450k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,536 | +$11 +0.7% | 4 |
| 227d | YRD65E564e54WS5e68 | 425k–450k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,539 | +$11 +0.7% | 4 |
| 227d | uyhfUYfg67T8FGuygU | 425k–450k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,532 | +$11 +0.7% | 4 |
| 227d | HgUYG87T87tYtgT879 | 425k–450k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,532 | +$11 +0.7% | 4 |
| 227d | yfUYt8T8tUYT876TU8 | 425k–450k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,523 | +$11 +0.7% | 4 |
| 228d | Lk7600 | <350k | BuyYes80¢ → 0¢ | $1,276 | −$1,276 −100% | 4 |
| 228d | Candid-Sermon | 450k–475k | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,498 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 260d | qlpuozdlnj86h | 475k–500k | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,522 | +$8 +0.3% | 4 |
| 260d | ieavodx1qfilx | 475k–500k | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,517 | +$8 +0.3% | 4 |
| 260d | nocvofdnoo5z255 | 425k–450k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,485 | +$15 +0.6% | 4 |
| 260d | tsqha2e2q03fr4535 | 425k–450k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,515 | +$15 +0.6% | 4 |
| 261d | icdukmf94wr2h | 450k–475k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,296 | +$43 +0.8% | 4 |
| 261d | oqudcwwl7cmfj | 450k–475k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,287 | +$43 +0.8% | 4 |
| 261d | uhucrrv5t5lhs47 | 450k–475k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,505 | +$25 +0.7% | 4 |
| 261d | bobrso7gzcexi12 | 450k–475k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,476 | +$25 +0.7% | 4 |
| 261d | qlhkuj96c1kxi25 | 450k–475k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,525 | +$25 +0.7% | 4 |
| 267d | Leading-ClayNew account | <350k | BuyYes73¢ → 0¢ | $1,499 | −$1,499 −100% | 15 |
| 290d |  Optimus- | <350k | BuyYes47¢ → 0¢ | $1,347 | −$1,347 −100% | 4 |
| 293d | Bakerx | <350k | BuyNo58¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$1,458 +73% | 4 |
Maubdib500 sharesThis market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 350k–375k means the market gives it about 100%.