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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-15 | 100% | +21 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 1-10 | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 16-20 | 0% | −17 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 21-25 | 0% | −2 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 26-30 | 0% | −2 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 31-35 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 36-40 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 41-45 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 46-49 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 50+ | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 798d |  XiJinPing-4782 fills | 11-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,393 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 798d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly2 fills | 21-25 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,385 | −$26 −0.4% | — |
| 798d | thought-process | 11-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,130 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 798d | OPMSucks | 11-15 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,068 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 798d |  EdgyUsername3 fills | 11-15 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $14,472 | −$2,299 −16% | — |
| 798d | professorx | 16-20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,052 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 798d | professorx | 11-15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,445 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 798d | squirrel-farmer2 fills | 11-15 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $12,429 | +$574 +4.6% | 21 |
| 798d |  milize | 11-15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 |
| 798d | ExhaustedBoyBilly | 11-15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,991 | +$9 +0.3% | 20 |
| 798d | ExhaustedBoyBilly | 16-20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,988 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 798d | milize | 16-20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,052 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 798d |  Squee3 fills | 11-15 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $10,450 | +$1,261 +12% | 23 |
| 798d | professorx3 fills | 50+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $55,886 | +$56 +0.1% | 20 |
| 798d | GigiPirri | 21-25 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,771 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 798d |  Coram_Deo | 11-15 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,956 | +$42 +2.1% | 20 |
| 798d |  LlamaEnjoyer | 50+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,523 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 798d | aviato | 21-25 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 799d | professorx | 31-35 | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,918 | +$31 +0.1% | 20 |
| 799d | professorx | 36-40 | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,717 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 799d | professorx | 41-45 | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,648 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
| 799d | professorx | 46-49 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,993 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 799d | naya2 fills | 50+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $49,367 | +$99 +0.2% | 20 |
| 799d | rtdream | 11-15 | BuyNo21¢ → 0¢ | $1,250 | −$1,250 −100% | 29 |
| 799d | Neonview6 fills | 50+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $98,129 | +$985 +1.0% | 20 |
| 799d | TRUMPMAGA | 50+ | SellNo>99¢ | $11,189 | −$22 −0.2% | — |
| 799d | dnidi23 | 26-30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,318 | +$9 +0.7% | 20 |
| 799d | 0xfe91…70ff2 fills | 41-45 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,355 | +$92 +1.7% | 20 |
| 799d | Lewycz | 50+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $49,769 | +$50 +0.1% | 20 |
| 799d |  weedle-002 | 11-15 | BuyNo49¢ → 0¢ | $1,722 | −$1,722 −100% | 28 |
| 799d |  GamblersNeverLose2 fills | 11-15 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $4,320 | −$333 −7.7% | — |
| 799d | unscented-nerd - 5386 | 11-15 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,629 | +$416 +26% | 25 |
| 799d |  LEGACY-ACCT | 11-15 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,700 | +$300 +11% | 23 |
| 799d |  Catlover255 | 11-15 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,831 | +$70 +3.8% | 21 |
| 799d | Hathers93 | 46-49 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,498 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 799d | Hathers93 | 46-49 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,500 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 800d | Evil-CoincidenceNew account | 50+ | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,829 | −$32 −1.1% | — |
| 800d |  factman2 fills | 11-15 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $11,810 | +$490 +4.2% | 21 |
| 800d | tomn | 11-15 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,564 | +$226 +4.1% | 21 |
| 800d | TRUMPMAGA3 fills | 50+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $17,464 | +$141 +0.8% | 20 |
| 800d | bluejay2 fills | 11-15 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $5,656 | +$635 +11% | 22 |
| 800d |  just.some.guy2 fills | 11-15 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $2,379 | +$321 +13% | 22 |
| 800d |  NadyaSuleman | 11-15 | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $2,089 | −$311 −15% | — |
| 800d | TRUMPMAGA | 26-30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,162 | +$18 +1.5% | 20 |
| 800d | ExhaustedBoyBilly | 50+ | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,970 | −$30 −1.5% | — |
| 800d | ExhaustedBoyBilly | 50+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,968 | +$32 +0.8% | 20 |
| 800d | bang772 fills | 11-15 | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$939 +19% | 23 |
| 801d |  MALDEMER | 50+ | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,796 | −$35 −1.9% | — |
| 801d | Catlover255 | 50+ | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,031 | −$58 −1.9% | — |
| 801d | MALDEMER | 11-15 | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $1,226 | +$629 +51% | 25 |
| 801d | lug | 11-15 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,156 | +$413 +36% | 24 |
| 801d | Neonview | 36-40 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,726 | +$29 +1.1% | 20 |
| 801d | Neonview | 31-35 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,895 | +$42 +1.5% | 20 |
| 801d | 0xfe91…70ff | 16-20 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,645 | +$230 +14% | 22 |
| 801d | 0xfe91…70ff | 46-49 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,100 | +$11 +1.0% | 20 |
| 801d |  jigglypff | 26-30 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,162 | +$120 +3.8% | 21 |
| 801d | jigglypff | 21-25 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,228 | +$210 +6.5% | 21 |
| 801d | jigglypff | 16-20 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $18,435 | +$2,541 +14% | 22 |
| 801d |  punishedgoon | 21-25 | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,175 | +$238 +11% | 22 |
| 801d | jigglypff | 11-15 | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $3,323 | +$1,481 +45% | 25 |
How many times will Trump tweet this week?
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 11-15 means the market gives it about 100%.