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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <35M | 100% | +41 pts | +67 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 35M - 37M | 0% | −22 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 37M - 39M | 0% | −10 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 39M - 41M | 0% | −5 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 41M - 43M | 0% | −2 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 43M - 45M | 0% | −9 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 45M+ | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
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bjprolo100 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of viewers (Persons 2+, average total viewers) Nielsen reports the 2026 State of the Union address as having. If this event is cancelled or otherwise does not occur by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported number of viewers falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be information from Nielsen, specifically their Persons 2+ statistic. A consensus of credible reporting on Nielsen's Persons 2+ statistic for the 2026 State of the Union address may also be used. If the 2026 State of the Union address takes place, and Nielsen does not provide viewership information for the broadcast of the address within 10 calendar days, another credible resolution for the 2026 State of the Union viewership source may be chosen.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for <35M means the market gives it about 100%.