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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump by 10%+ | 100% | 0 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Trump by 9-10% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 8-9% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 7-8% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 6-7% | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 5-6% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 4-5% | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 3-4% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 2-3% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 1-2% | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 0-1% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 0-1% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 1-2% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 2-3% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 3-4% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 4%+ | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 690d | AIisTheNewWalkingDead | Trump by 10%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,938 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 692d | nutattack695 fills | Trump by 10%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $38,256 | +$71 +0.2% | 4 |
| 692d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly2 fills | Trump by 10%+ | SellYes>99¢ | $9,087 | −$44 −0.5% | — |
| 695d |  Rasalgethi2 fills | Trump by 10%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,686 | +$14 +0.3% | 4 |
| 696d |  beigesun | Trump by 10%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,793 | +$7 +0.4% | 4 |
| 702d |  BigNipRick | Trump by 10%+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,309 | −$11 −0.8% | — |
| 702d | pulica | Trump by 10%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,586 | +$18 +0.4% | 4 |
| 707d | VorpalQuark | Trump by 10%+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,630 | +$16 +1.0% | 4 |
| 709d | TrumpPump | Trump by 10%+ | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $5,387 | −$255 −4.7% | — |
| 711d |  DickTurbin | Trump by 10%+ | SellYes>99¢ | $2,376 | −$10 −0.4% | — |
| 712d |  carp | Trump by 10%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 4 |
| 714d | Melody626 | Trump by 10%+ | SellYes100¢ | $5,932 | −$30 −0.5% | — |
| 714d | tanguero242 fills | Trump by 10%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,242 | +$16 +0.4% | 4 |
| 715d | carp | Trump by 10%+ | SellYes100¢ | $4,905 | −$25 −0.5% | — |
| 715d | anciano | Trump by 9-10% | SellNo>99¢ | $2,442 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 715d | anciano | Trump by 3-4% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,600 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 715d | anciano | Trump by 5-6% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,079 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 715d | anciano | Trump by 6-7% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,059 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 715d | anciano | Trump by 7-8% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,297 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 715d | anciano | Trump by 4-5% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,798 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 715d | anciano | Trump by 1-2% | SellNo>99¢ | $2,102 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 715d | anciano | Harris by 0-1% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,820 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 715d | anciano | Harris by 3-4% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,037 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 715d | anciano | Harris by 4%+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,321 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 715d | ExhaustedBoyBilly3 fills | Trump by 10%+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $28,354 | +$216 +0.8% | 4 |
| 715d |  HuntersMethDealer | Trump by 10%+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,467 | −$29 −0.7% | — |
| 716d | apdjhapdjs | Trump by 10%+ | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,177 | +$33 +0.4% | 4 |
| 717d | HowBoutThemCowboys | Trump by 10%+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,060 | −$58 −1.4% | — |
| 717d | Tacobell1 | Trump by 10%+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,474 | −$49 −1.4% | — |
| 717d |  d1k21 | Trump by 10%+ | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,877 | −$17 −0.9% | — |
| 717d |  Anjun | Trump by 10%+ | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,689 | +$88 +1.0% | 4 |
| 717d | 8BlocksCapital | Harris by 4%+ | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,015 | −$10 −1.0% | — |
| 717d | 8BlocksCapital2 fills | Trump by 10%+ | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $25,379 | +$1,588 +6.3% | 4 |
| 717d | mrmotion | Trump by 10%+ | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $2,046 | −$306 −15% | — |
| 717d | Melody626 | Trump by 10%+ | SellNo53¢ → 0¢ | $2,011 | +$2,011 +100% | — |
| 717d |  romanroy | Trump by 10%+ | SellNo13¢ → 0¢ | $1,118 | +$1,118 +100% | — |
| 717d | Melody6262 fills | Trump by 10%+ | BuyYes55¢ → 100¢ | $3,270 | +$2,675 +82% | 4 |
| 717d | 8BlocksCapital | Trump by 10%+ | SellNo49¢ → 0¢ | $2,249 | +$2,249 +100% | — |
| 717d | h038596027355 | Trump by 10%+ | SellNo48¢ → 0¢ | $1,299 | +$1,299 +100% | — |
| 717d | nola72324 | Trump by 10%+ | SellNo53¢ → 0¢ | $1,330 | +$1,330 +100% | — |
| 717d | carp | Harris by 4%+ | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,027 | +$30 +2.9% | 4 |
| 717d | Echelonprt2 fills | Trump by 10%+ | BuyYes31¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$6,815 +227% | 8 |
| 717d |  MLBksRETARD | Trump by 10%+ | BuyNo84¢ → 0¢ | $8,683 | −$8,683 −100% | 4 |
| 718d | Softbook11 | Trump by 10%+ | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 4 |
| 718d | TrumpPump | Trump by 10%+ | BuyYes27¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$4,142 +276% | 6 |
| 718d |  0943 | Harris by 4%+ | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $10,202 | +$448 +4.4% | 5 |
| 718d | Somebodytolose | Trump by 10%+ | BuyNo84¢ → 0¢ | $2,150 | −$2,150 −100% | 8 |
| 718d |  Eatplantsnotanimals | Trump by 10%+ | BuyNo83¢ → 0¢ | $1,857 | −$1,857 −100% | 9 |
| 718d | fixednorm | Trump by 10%+ | BuyNo83¢ → 0¢ | $2,220 | −$2,220 −100% | 9 |
| 718d | carp | Harris by 3-4% | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,791 | +$50 +2.8% | 5 |
| 718d | kamala-243 | Trump by 1-2% | BuyYes7¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 12 |
| 718d | Pigbenis8888 | Harris by 1-2% | BuyYes9¢ → 0¢ | $1,275 | −$1,275 −100% | 14 |
| 719d | comical-32782212 fills | Trump by 10%+ | BuyYes21¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$14,982 +375% | 17 |
| 719d | adichat4 fills | Trump by 10%+ | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $24,921 | −$24,921 −100% | 7 |
| 719d | kocinakn | Trump by 10%+ | BuyYes22¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$4,715 +363% | 13 |
| 719d |  456ythgbvcadscvb2 fills | Harris by 4%+ | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,390 | +$138 +5.8% | 5 |
| 719d | kefirsky | Trump by 10%+ | BuyNo83¢ → 0¢ | $2,501 | −$2,501 −100% | 9 |
| 719d | Bink_7 | Trump by 10%+ | BuyYes24¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$5,700 +317% | 12 |
| 719d | jjdjkdsfhiuwehrhfjsdhfjhwej | Trump by 10%+ | BuyNo77¢ → 0¢ | $3,822 | −$3,822 −100% | 8 |
| 719d | romanroy2 fills | Trump by 10%+ | BuyNo79¢ → 0¢ | $3,047 | −$3,047 −100% | 7 |
This is a market on the margin of victory in the Iowa election.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Trump by 10%+ means the market gives it about 100%.