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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 864d | professorx | Iran response to Israel by Sunday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,520 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 864d |  50Whence | Iran response to Israel by Sunday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,745 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 866d |  Endgametheory | Iran response to Israel by Sunday? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,155 | +$9 +0.7% | 4 |
On June 5, 2024, it was reported Israel allegedly initiated a strike on an Iranian advisor in Aleppo on Monday. The commander of the Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has since threatened a response. You can read more about that here: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/irans-guards-chief-threatens-response-after-adviser-killed-in-alleged-israeli-strike-in-aleppo/ This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an Iranian response to Israel's strike on the Iranian advisor in Aleppo, Syria by June 9, 2024 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A response by Iran refers to action(s) carried out by Iran that are explicitly in response to Israel's alleged strike in Aleppo, Syria, which may include strikes, cyber attacks, sanctions, etc. Only a response by Iran, explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.