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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 497d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C292 fills | Iran strike on Israel by Monday? | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $12,744 | −$304 −2.4% | — |
| 497d | rwo3 fills | Iran strike on Israel by Monday? | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,517 | +$19 +0.2% | 20 |
| 497d |  SPIT | Iran strike on Israel by Monday? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,662 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 497d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C293 fills | Iran strike on Israel by Monday? | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $12,842 | +$1,034 +8.1% | 20 |
| 497d |  debased4 fills | Iran strike on Israel by Monday? | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $13,416 | +$2,759 +21% | 21 |
| 498d |  tunatyler | Iran strike on Israel by Monday? | SellYes72¢ → 100¢ | $1,434 | −$566 −39% | — |
| 498d |  sski | Iran strike on Israel by Monday? | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,854 | −$94 −2.5% | — |
| 498d | tunatyler | Iran strike on Israel by Monday? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,094 | +$17 +1.5% | 20 |
| 498d |  Erasmus. | Iran strike on Israel by Monday? | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $5,206 | +$1,066 +20% | 21 |
| 498d | sski | Iran strike on Israel by Monday? | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $3,257 | +$692 +21% | 21 |
| 498d |  Funfzig6 fills | Iran strike on Israel by Monday? | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $22,789 | +$4,149 +18% | 21 |
| 498d |  Pulser2 fills | Iran strike on Israel by Monday? | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $4,196 | +$1,137 +27% | 21 |
| 498d | cashy | Iran strike on Israel by Monday? | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | +$425 +41% | 22 |
| 498d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29 | Iran strike on Israel by Monday? | BuyNo25¢ → 0¢ | $1,900 | −$1,900 −100% | 25 |
HedgeLord50 shares
carbonite29 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate between June 11, and June 16, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.