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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 1 | 100% | +2 pts | +90 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 4 | 0% | −17 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 5 | 0% | −2 pts | −24 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 7 | 100% | +39 pts | +69 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| April 2 | 0% | −2 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 3 | 0% | −1 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 10 | 0% | −1 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 8 | 0% | 0 pts | −41 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 6 | 0% | −1 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 9 | 0% | 0 pts | −36 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 11 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 12 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 13 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 14 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 15 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 16 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 17 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 18 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 19 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 20 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 21 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 22 | 100% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 23 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 24 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 25 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 26 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 27 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 28 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 29 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| April 30 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 194d | ddolsw123r | April 10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,062 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 194d | Flimsy-Fibre | April 10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,735 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 196d | L.X | April 8 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,182 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 197d | L.X | April 7 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,731 | +$18 +1.0% | 4 |
| 197d | L.X | April 6 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,482 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 198d | Flimsy-FibreNew account | April 5 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,022 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 199d | Flimsy-FibreNew account | April 3 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,706 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 199d | Arman2 | April 4 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,374 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 199d | matchamission | April 4 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,548 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 199d | Arman2 | April 4 | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,170 | +$205 +18% | 4 |
| 199d | April 4 | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $3,220 | +$625 +19% | 4 | |
| 200d | Flimsy-FibreNew account | April 1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,182 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 202d | OnChainCassandra | April 3 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | +$31 +3.1% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for April 1 means the market gives it about 100%.