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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +3 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 640d |  MMousse2 fills | Is the Cybertruck manifesto real? | SellYes>99¢ | $12,522 | −$53 −0.4% | — |
| 640d |  MotherTheresa | Is the Cybertruck manifesto real? | SellYes>99¢ | $5,673 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 640d | MakerOne | Is the Cybertruck manifesto real? | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,377 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 640d |  jesterthegoose | Is the Cybertruck manifesto real? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,594 | +$11 +0.7% | 4 |
| 640d | Roronotalt | Is the Cybertruck manifesto real? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$30 +1.0% | 4 |
| 640d | MotherTheresa3 fills | Is the Cybertruck manifesto real? | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,882 | +$241 +4.9% | 4 |
| 653d | Ordon | Is the Cybertruck manifesto real? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,058 | +$11 +1.0% | 4 |
| 655d | MMousse2 fills | Is the Cybertruck manifesto real? | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $8,935 | +$1,299 +15% | 4 |
| 656d |  Justifax | Is the Cybertruck manifesto real? | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,686 | −$276 −16% | — |
Mitfliedsname123,713 shares
BabyYoda122,000 sharesOn January 3, Shawn Ryan posted an alleged manifesto sent by the Cybertruck perp (see: https://x.com/ShawnRyan762/status/1875278600284635341). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the FBI confirms that the manifesto was written by Matthew Livelsberger. This market will resolve to "No" if the FBI confirms that the manifesto was not written by Matthew Livelsberger. This market will resolve once there have been definitive statements from the FBI confirming whether the manifesto was written by Matthew Livelsberger. If there has been no definitive statement by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what the FBI believe was most likely based on official statements.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.