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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 957d | professorx2 fills | Israel + Hamas hostage deal by Ramadan? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,702 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 957d |  Okan | Israel + Hamas hostage deal by Ramadan? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,600 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 958d | Okan | Israel + Hamas hostage deal by Ramadan? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,141 | +$86 +7.5% | 20 |
| 961d |  intelmarketmaker | Israel + Hamas hostage deal by Ramadan? | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,671 | +$313 +19% | 23 |
On Feb 18, member of Israeli War Cabinet Benny Gantz said "The world must know — and Hamas leaders must know — that if by Ramadan the hostages are not home, then the fighting will continue, including in Rafah." This market will resolve to "Yes” Israel and Hamas agree to a hostage deal by 11:59 PM Palestine Standard Time (UTC +2), March 10, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement by the resolution date of an agreed hostage deal between Israel and Hamas will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when and if the hostage deal actually takes place. Note that any hostage deal agreement will suffice, regardless of the number of hostages agreed to be released. The primary resolution source will be formal acknowledgments from Hamas and Israel. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.