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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −2 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 479d | Ordon | Israel strikes Iran before July? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,325 | +$34 +1.0% | 20 |
| 479d | Ordon | Israel strikes Iran before July? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 479d | rwo | Israel strikes Iran before July? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,864 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 479d | rwo | Israel strikes Iran before July? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,232 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 480d | 0x4540D662B6EC203903785BaF58E3c644B1c21E62 fills | Israel strikes Iran before July? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,195 | +$40 +0.8% | 20 |
| 480d | pondoxva | Israel strikes Iran before July? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,175 | +$12 +1.1% | 20 |
| 480d |  Dumbeldor2003 | Israel strikes Iran before July? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,900 | +$51 +1.7% | 20 |
TimeTraveler300 shares
anaconda3808238 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.