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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% | — | — | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| M25 Darwin: Adrian Arcon vs Luca Connaughton | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| M25 Darwin: Adrian Arcon vs Luca Connaughton Set 2 Winner | 0% | — | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| M25 Darwin: Adrian Arcon vs Luca Connaughton Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% | — | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| M25 Darwin: Adrian Arcon vs Luca Connaughton Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% | — | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| M25 Darwin: Adrian Arcon vs Luca Connaughton Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% | — | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| M25 Darwin: Adrian Arcon vs Luca Connaughton Set 1 Winner | 100% | — | — | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| M25 Darwin: Adrian Arcon vs Luca Connaughton Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% | — | — | 81¢ · 100¢ (19¢) | — | ended |
| M25 Darwin: Adrian Arcon vs Luca Connaughton Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% | — | — | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| M25 Darwin: Adrian Arcon vs Luca Connaughton Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% | — | — | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| M25 Darwin: Adrian Arcon vs Luca Connaughton Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% | — | — | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| M25 Darwin: Adrian Arcon vs Luca Connaughton Match O/U 21.5 | 0% | — | — | — · 19¢ | — | ended |
| M25 Darwin: Adrian Arcon vs Luca Connaughton Match O/U 22.5 | 0% | — | — | — · 19¢ | — | ended |
| M25 Darwin: Adrian Arcon vs Luca Connaughton Match O/U 23.5 | 0% | — | — | — · 19¢ | — | ended |
| M25 Darwin: Adrian Arcon vs Luca Connaughton Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% | — | — | — · 19¢ | — | ended |
| M25 Darwin: Adrian Arcon vs Luca Connaughton Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% | — | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
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This market refers to the tennis match between Adrian Arcon and Luca Connaughton in the M25 Darwin, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Arcon' if Adrian Arcon advances against Luca Connaughton. This market will resolve to 'Luca Connaughton' if Luca Connaughton advances against Adrian Arcon. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Completed Match means the market gives it about 100%.