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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +22 pts | +33 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 335d | Long-Term-PetNew account | Jair Bolsonaro in jail by January 31? | BuyYes100¢ | $1,670 | +$8 +0.5% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Bolsonaro is confined in a jail or prison for any length of time by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". House arrest will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the detaining government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.