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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | −1 pts | −18 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 232d | johndaghita | John Daghita arrested by March 31? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,980 | −$19 −0.6% | — |
| 232d | John Daghita arrested by March 31? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $14,296 | +$231 +1.6% | 2 | |
| 256d | dying | John Daghita arrested by March 31? | SellNo99¢ → 0¢ | $2,111 | +$2,111 +100% | — |
| 256d | federal.finesser2 fills | John Daghita arrested by March 31? | BuyNo>99¢ → 0¢ | $6,324 | −$6,324 −100% | 2 |
| 266d | dying | John Daghita arrested by March 31? | BuyNo79¢ → 0¢ | $1,696 | −$1,696 −100% | 2 |
US opens investigation into John Daghita, alleged to have stolen $40M+ in US government–seized crypto https://x.com/zoomerfied/status/2015949703473516635?s=20 This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Daghita is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.